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Adobe SystemsADBETOP PICKMar 21, 2017Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 18, 2026. Market Open.
We thought the Figma deal would be good for the company, but investors initially did not like it. At $20B, it 'sounded' big, but represented only about 10% of ADBE's market cap at the time of the first announcement. ADBE market cap has risen about another $90B since the offer, so Figma's significance has declined even more. Still, it is disappointing, and ADBE has to pay Figma a $1B cash break fee, but life will go on. ADBE noted this week it will use the cash earmarked for the deal to go to buybacks and more AI development. We would not let the failed deal change our positive opinion of the company's future.
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One of his favourite companies which has consistently delivered returns. Benefits big from the AI trend. However, shares tend to be volatile right after earnings. They report Wednesday. Last year, Adobe bought Figma, a design company. He disagrees with some, feeling that Figma was worth the price, because Figma's tools are so beloved by users. Regulators are challenging the deal over anti-trust concerns. Could Adobe walk away from the deal?
An original cloud king that went profitable a long time ago and is now into AI. Up 58% this year. But after reporting last Thursday, it slid 4% though has partially recovered. Some feel that Adobe's quarter dropped the ball, but he disagrees. They report a modest revenue beat with sales up 10% YOY, with the digital media business better than expected and non-GAAP EPS also beating. There was no problem in the guidance with the earnings outlook robust. Note: a week before the report Adobe announced price increases for subscribers starting Nov. 1 as it develops its Firefly AI. So, share rallied hot before the report. Shares ran up and typically people sell on the news and take profits. Also, Adobe moved its full-year forecast to next December, which spooked some weak-kneed investors. He wanted to hear an update about their Figma buy, but they couldn't yet. Buy this pullback.
The two most important themes and most resilient in this market are technology and financials. Semiconductors look great. Software looks great. This company fits in a couple of key themes. They were the original big software company to go to the Cloud, selling their software by subscription. Today, 82% of revenue comes as a subscription. That is really attractive, because it is pretty predictable. Not only that, but revenues are growing very, very nicely. Revenues were up 22% in this most recent quarter. They should be able to grow revenue at 20% for quite some time, but because they make it and sell it a lot of times, as they grow their revenue, the margins go up. Their margins went to 36% from 31%, and the earnings went up 42%. Not an inexpensive stock, but the leader in software for Digital media, and we are all consuming quite a lot of Digital media. (Analysts’ price target is $143.50.)