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President & Chief Investment Strategist at Barometer Capital Management
Member since: Jun '01 · 4975 Opinions
Historically it is a good sign that U.S. markets keep hitting record highs after 18 months of not making new highs. Also we are in an election year after a negative mid-term (presidential) market. This is good too, historically. There has been 5 new net term highs in January which predicts well for the rest of the year. A number of global markets have woken up after 15 years, including Japan after 30 years. There is a substantial improvement of the breadth of the market and in putting new money to work. Along these lines there could be a fair bit of money coming back into Canadian stocks. Also there are a lot of Canadian companies not just focused on the Canadian domestic economy, especially in industrials. Latin America and parts of Asia are interesting - not just the U.S. U.S. earnings are improving after a contraction - could be up 15% by the 4th quarter. There are corporations and individuals with high cash rates.
It is important to watch the semi conductors. Nvdia is the champion in A.I. He owns both NVDA and AMD. Advanced Micro Devices has some interesting solutions and we should see some very interesting custom chips get built. People are likely to look at others beyond Nvdia. Tech is an important place to be but not the only place.
Pharma companies today are divided into the haves and have-nots. Eli Lilly and Vertex are in the 'haves' group. He owns Eli Lilly which could be the biggest of the Pharmas. Also Vertex looks good and has a new Cystic Fibrosis drug. Pfizer has little growth and the stock is under pressure. It pays a high dividend but offers no real dividend growth, He prefers lower paying dividend companies with significant dividend growth ahead rather than companies that pay high dividends now. With this theme in mind The ETF, RDVY, holds companies with the ability to grow dividends. His view is that it is a reflating world and that rates could go up more in the next cycle.
It is a leader in the sector - best managed, best balance sheet and is outspending their competitors in technology by a wide margin. It made some good acquisitions with regional banks being in difficulty. The U.S. financial ETF - XLF made new highs in the bear market 1 1/2 years ago.
It made new highs in November and is the leader in the space. It will never be cheap unless something is broken. It is spending big in the augmented reality space which is great for more revenue. There there are big expectations for earnings growth and it is good at beating estimates. Use a trailing stop loss. Tech is 20% of their portfolio.
He likes uranium in the materials space and nuclear energy as a power source. It was the first in the materials sector to make a new high when materials turned higher. It is a big producer and recently exceeded its all time high. Earnings should be up a lot. He owns BWX Technologies (BWXT). It has been building small nuclear reactors for decades for the U.S. military and running them safely. It is now getting them commercialized and working with Ontario Power.