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Opinions Eric Nuttall
Cardinal Energy LtdCJ.TODON'T BUYJul 25, 2014
Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 19, 2026. Market Open.
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For the mid-cap Canadian companies in the space with higher yields, be very careful. If you're looking for dividend sustainability, we've gone through a couple of cycles in the last decade -- dividends have been both increased and reduced. Yield is 11%.
In the space, he prefers FRU.
Spending more money on a project, free cashflow won't be for 2 years, and market's attention span is very short. Concern they'll be burning cash to pay the dividend. Balance sheet indicates sustainable dividend, unless oil price really nosedives. Insider buying. Too small for him. Yield is 10.5%.
He never buys a company on the expectation that it will be bought out. Good exposure to medium-heavy oil. Very manageable debt levels. Older, higher-cost assets, so it needs a higher than average oil price. If you don't care about capital appreciation and just want the juicy dividend, it's not the worst name.
He owns it in his RRSP because of the dividend. Company's done a decent job. Need oil prices to go up to bring excitement to the stock price. It was noted that the company has a negative carbon footprint. Yield is around 10%.
Bruce MurrayCJ is always going to be cyclical, but it has a very strong balance sheet and good cash flow. Dividend payout ratio is less than 30%, but cash flow can change quickly if commodity prices drop. But we see no real problem with the dividend, but it is of course not guaranteed, and with 10%+ yield investors do seem concerned. While we are not overly worried, we would not use the word 'safe' for the dividend of any oil and gas stock. Cash flow and earnings will drop this year on lower pricing. The stock is cheap, but with little growth expected we would rate it a HOLD and not a BUY.
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EPS of 10c missed estimates of 15.3c. Revenue of $135M missed estimates of $136.6M. Production was 21.7K b/d day and free cash flow was $28.8M. Its 2023 drill program will renew in the 2Q. Production rose 5%. The balance sheet is now nearly debt free. Earnings are expected to fall this year. The stock is very cheap, but RBC seems to be taking a conservative stance in case prices fall in a recession. We think the 7X valuation already reflects most risk. Payout ratio is <25%, though at an 11% yield investors seem unduly concerned on the dividend.
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This is more of a yield play. They IPO’d in Dec/13 at $10.50. Sold his holdings in the mid-$15-$16, feeling that the easy money had been made. They are now essentially a pure play on the Glock where they have drilled 2 wells. Three wells will be released the next time they come out with results in about 3 week’s time. The real upside is that they are under leveraged, and given the real low decline rate of their assets, they are generating a lot of excess free cash flow, which they don’t necessarily want to deploy into their existing play. They are looking at other plays. They have been targeting a 2000 barrels a day acquisition for many, many months. It seems they may be getting closer to achieving that. Given that they are trading at around 7.5-7.8 times enterprise value to cash flow, they’ll likely be able to make an accretive acquisition and have the stock go up. There are other names he would prefer right now.