Eric NuttallEnerplus CorpERF.TOTOP PICKOct 27, 2023
At least 15 years of drilling inventory in Bakken play. Very strong balance sheet (almost no debt). Expecting ~60% of free cash flow returning to shareholders. Trading under 3x cash flow with $80 oil. Expecting ~$29 share price next year given $80 oil. Expecting strong performance in 2024. Value proposition very strong.
Owns ~5 million shares in company (~5% of shares). Oil assets very profitable. Management team very good. Expecting ~60% of free cash flow being returned to shareholders. Current share price under-valued.
Sold because he became very bearish on natural gas, bullish on oil. Lots of drilling and no real winter last year meant that storage was high. Still on his radar, but no price catalyst until this time next year. Minimizing growth and maximizing free cashflow, buybacks, very aggressive.
The chart is heading down and looking for a base. It is OK to own even if moving sideways since it pays a dividend of $0.074 cents a share. Be cautious. Another 5 out of 10 chart.
He sold. He's negative on natural gas. He just wants to own Canadian heavy oil. Valuation remains compelling. Great quality assets. Attractive on free cashflow and buybacks. He could be back in some day.
Pure USA Bakken & Marcellus play. 12-15 years of drilling inventory. Trading at 2.2x times cash flow (fair value = 5x). Expecting meaningful appreciation of shares.
Has 9.5% weight in portfolio.
Massive out performer last year.
Very strong company that has been returning capital to shareholders.
Pledged 60% of free cash flow to shareholders.
Share price should double from here.
(A Top Pick Mar 31/22, Up 47%) Very strong energy fundamentals.
Believes further room for growth in energy.
Company stock still cheap.
Will continue to hold.
Excellent financial performance that expects to continue.
Its fair value is $37 U.S. so there is 120% upside. Has an excellent balance sheet and is committed to returning 60 to 65% to investors through buybacks.
(A Top Pick Sep 24/21, Up 125%) Strong company that will continue to hold.
Will pay down debt to zero by end of the year.
Expecting to return 60% of free cash flow going forward (~18 of shares next year).
9% weight in portfolio.
Expecting a 5x multiple on share price or $40 share price.
Board recently committed to at least 60% of free cash flow to share buybacks & dividends this year and 2023.
Looking into a significant issuer bid to buyback over 10% of their stock.
Currently trading at ~1.6x cash flow and 39% free cash flow yield.
Expecting company to debt free next year.
Looking for a 5x multiple on current share price $26.
Management team committed to returning capital back to shareholders.
Package of conventional assets on the market which should fetch high price.
35% free cash flow yield, trading a 1.8x cash flow with long reserve life in the USA.
Company should be debt free this time next year.
Expecting company shares to appreciate significantly very soon.
Absent a global recession, Canadian energy sector is cheap. In US and Canada. For a 2-5 year timeframe, you'll do very well (absent the aforesaid recession). Substantial excess free cashflow. Plans dividend increases and share buybacks.
At least 15 years of drilling inventory in Bakken play. Very strong balance sheet (almost no debt). Expecting ~60% of free cash flow returning to shareholders. Trading under 3x cash flow with $80 oil. Expecting ~$29 share price next year given $80 oil. Expecting strong performance in 2024. Value proposition very strong.