Fairfax Financial (FFH.TO)

Financial investments can do well in a raising interest rate environment. He likes Pram Watsa. He would look closely at the valuation. He likes the theme.

(Past Top Pick Sept.29, 2017, Up 8%) They sold their majority stake in their Asian insurance business. It does suffer lumpy earnings, but they write profitable insurance. Made a big purchase in Allied World last year. Some of their investments, like the Toronto Star, may or may not work out, but Prem Watsa is a smart guy. He continues to like this.

If we break above high-$700's, then it's clear sailing to $1,000. Their investment side has underperformed, but their investment side has really picked up. Good exposure to India. A good, long-term name. (1.8% dividend, Analysts' price target: $777.80)

It is defensive in nature. It is a really well run business. The insurance business is quite profitable for them right now. Over the long term, management has done a fantastic job. They have made some great investments. It is very high quality and will do well as a long term investment. (Analysts’ target: $775.38).

(A top pick June 6/18, down 1%) It hit his target in early summer. Is now consolidating. He still has lots of faith in this stock. Is a very safe position to hold. Would sell if gets to around $770.

(A Top Pick May 17/18, Up 1%) Has been a flat story. Still a good entry point. Has a lot of hidden gems.

It is a good defensive pick in a market like this. They have a fantastic long term investing track record. They have had a lot of cash historically and are now starting to invest that. Their insurance operations are operating as well as they have in a long time. It is only at 1.1 times book value. He has been buying as recently as last week. (Analysts’ target: $749.47).

It fell recently because the HBC deal is not likely to go well for them. He feels it will go back to $780. Interest rates rising would be good for their insurance companies. They have a hedge against inflation. They tend to make good calls. (Analysts’ target: $749.47).

Prem Watsa is often described as the Warren Buffett of Canada. He is opportunistic, not afraid of taking risk. Some of his bets have not worked so well but many have. Insurance companies make money in two ways: core earnings from underwriting, and the investment returns from premiums. Warren Buffett initiated a different approach for investing insurance premiums. Rather than putting it into very safe, but low-yielding, bonds, he invested in stocks. Watsa follows this model and Fairfax has benefitted. The recent rises in interest rates are also very positive for all insurance companies because all of them still buy long-term assets. Fairfax has done nothing for investors for a long while, but he is proposing a top pick in the insurance industry today, and believes that the category has promise.

He bought it on the break out above $650 back in Q4 2017. He probably won’t hold it much above $780. Yield 1.7%. (Analysts’ price target is $746.97)

This is a big investment company. He's held this stock for a very long time. It's consolidated the last few years and is beahving well again after some good investments. Buy it now and put it away. It manages a ell-run, diversified portfolio.

He has been a shareholder of this company for a long time. Underperformed for the last couple of years mainly for some contrarian bets the CEO has made. Just made an investment on Toys r Us that looks interesting for the Real Estate. Good cash position. Good book value. (Analysts’ price target is $746.97)

Run by the brilliant Prem Watsa, but Watsa's made some bad calls about the direction of the markets in recent years. He thinks the street is coming back to this stock. He's owned it for five years. His portfolio is a little strange, like holding Sporting Life. That said, he believes in Prem and will be patient.

Management has been very good at calling macro moves. It does not hit his metrics, however. It is a relatively stable stock. A low payout ratio and low yield. You can hold it for stability for the long haul. It is an implied hedge against the market.