SPDR Gold ETF (GLD)

He is not a gold fan. Why would you be a gold fan when the US$ and the US markets are strong?

(Top Pick Jul 11/14, Down 4.34%) Keep holding it. Yesterday we saw the gold trusts break support and now they are underperforming the market. Seasonality suggests you want to keep holding it. You want to look for it to keep continuing to bottom by the end of September. Watch for the US$ to move lower.

Typically the gold sector moves higher from July 12 right through until October 9.

(A Top Pick June 6/13. Down 8.8%.) This was a seasonal trade in gold. This is been a very volatile space in the last year. For risk/reward, a 2^nd seasonality is coming up in July and looks rather interesting. Chart is showing higher lows.

Do you recommend using Puts and Calls to invest in gold? If you are a bull or a bear on gold, option premiums are not expensive. They are going through the same low volatility that the stock market is, so options on gold would be the easiest way to play this. Not a big fan of gold so he doesn’t think it is going too far one way or the other. He doesn’t think that doing anything more than covered writing on gold itself makes any great sense and there is not a lot of premium in doing that right now. If he were going to play it at all, he would probably use Calls and Puts because they are cheap.

(A Top Pick Aug 22/13. Down 7.5%.) Seasonal strength for bullion is from July 12 to the end of September on average. He saw this one fade a little early, so he started taking up positions in September. Made about 8% on his trade.

(A Top Pick July 12/13. Up 5.16%.) Gold has a seasonal period, which starts in July, runs through August and does well in September. This year, it didn’t do well so he started to sell out when it pulled back.

(A Top Pick Sept 4/12. Down 23.73%.) Lightened up because he didn’t like the action he saw. Intermediate trend got broken earlier this year and he would’ve liked to have seen it base at around $151. If it retested the $116-$117 level, he would probably re-enter.

Does it make sense to hold this in a TFSA and what percentage should it represent of an overall portfolio? Something like this will either be a home run or strikeout. What you have to look at is whether or not you are prepared to have it drop by a fair bit. Even though he thinks gold is pretty close to its bottom, he would not be putting more than 10% into a gold product.

Gold bullion. Gold is very seasonally strong from July through until October. Bullion typically goes up about 4.5% whereas stocks do about 14% over this period.

(Top Pick Jul 26/12, Down 18.05%) He still has some gold producers. He got out and took a loss. May and June it was unpredictable. It has not kicked into seasonal strength the way he predicted it would. If he bought it today he would unload it in October.

July 27 to September 25 is the seasonality for this play. We saw the worse quarter in nearly a century for gold bullion. This is the time period for gold bullion to do well. For the last 3 years it peaked right at September 25.

Has been looking at this one because, when it has dropped as much as it has, he will be keeping an eye on it. If you are going to have this, keep it is a relatively small part of your portfolio, certainly not more than 5%. It’s a very good ETF, bullion based.

(A Top Pick July 26/12. Down 12.87%.) Risk/reward is really good. Chart shows a little bit of a test at $132. Gold tends to have its biggest moves when you have currency fluctuations versus inflation.

Gold. You should own one of the trusts because US holders of ETFs get taxed on capital gains so there is a greater chance of products trading at a premium. He would own it in trust form rather than ETF form.