(A Top Pick Oct 13/22, Up 5.8%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O’Reilly
Our PAST TOP PICK with KHC has triggered its stop at $38. To remain disciplined, we recommend covering the position at this time. This will result in a net investment gain of 11%, when combined with our previous recommendation to cover half the position.
(A Top Pick Oct 13/22, Up 17%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly Our PAST TOP PICK with KHC has achieved its target at $42. To remain disciplined, we recommend covering half the position at this time and trailing up the stop (from $33) to $38. If triggered, this would result in a net investment gain of 11% when combined with our previous buy recommendation.
(A Top Pick Oct 13/22, Up 5.7%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly Our PAST TOP PICK with KHC is progressing well. To remain disciplined, we recommend trailing up the stop to $33.
Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly KHC is a defensive stock, that pays a good dividend, trades below book value, and has demonstrated it is a good inflation hedge. The company has been able to pass along rising costs to consumers and still has sales growing 10% over the previous quarter. Its dividend is backed by a payout ratio under 60% of cash flow. We recommend placing a stop-loss at $30, looking to achieve $42 -- upside potential over 17%. Yield 4.7% (Analysts’ price target is $41.93)
Past missteps. Cut dividend to a sustainable level, still 4.13%. Used free cashflow to pay down debt from $30B to 20B. Reinvesting in brands. Ready to grow again. Lower-valued consumer stock. (Analysts’ price target is $42.31)
They haven't fared well from a fundamental standpoint. Earnings have gone down since the 2015 merger. With the market rotating into value, KHC has benefited a bit, but their profile remains unexciting. There are better opportunities elsewhere.
Undervalued, relative to peers. Prospects are slowly improving. In the staples sector, there are easier stories to get behind. Still a work in progress. He prefers Costco, PG, or even Nestle, which all have more consistent earnings.
Condiment market? Ketchup seems the place to be during the pandemic. Heinz had been a struggling company, but it has been a safe haven when the economy has been in rough shape. The dividend has remained safe.
Not a shining moment for Warren Buffett. Problem is consumers want upscale, fresh, artisanal food, not the old-fashioned, mass-produced food in a box that Kraft makes. Kraft needs to reinvent themselves and move in that direction.
Molson Coors vs. Kraft Heinz She owns neither. Kraft Heinz has pulled back a lot; 3G Capital bought them and they're famous for cutting and not reinvesting, which limits product innovation. There's little growth in North American staples; the space is very mature and highly competitive. Molson Coors: She doesn't own any beer companies, because they're all richly priced. Also, beer drinking is declining over time. She gives a slight edge to Molson Coors, but unethusiastically, because KHC is limited by the mature N.A. market.
Debt issues? Growth by acquisition with a lot of debt has got them into problem. He sold out around $80 and is now starting to look again at them. He is concerned about the debt overhang. Over a 5-10 year time horizon you should be okay. Is it the best to own in consumer staples? He would add something else along with it. He can't recommend it until he does more analysis.