The Panic-Proof Portfolio (Stockchase Research)Lennar Corp.LENPAST TOP PICKDec 28, 2023

They report Thursday and he expects good numbers. But watch what the Fed does and say on Wednesday.

Sometimes momentum works. Balance sheet is strong, home inventories are weak, and fundamentals are strong overall. Add to this cheaper capital/lower rates. The outlook looks good.

Their recovery is spectacular. DR Horton is also a buy.

Normally at this point in the cycle, he's say these companies have had it, but LEN is so disciplined in spending on cost per house that this stock can return to all-time highs.

He's long in the homebuilders which are declining now. September earnings were okay, but shares were weak. These stocks peaked last spring, and he can't see a return to that as long as interest rates remain high.

Has good fundamentals, but not share price action, so there's a disconnect, which sometimes happens.

The homebuilders had seen fundamental strength peak in the spring selling season. Doesn't mean there will be a sharp fall for the homebuilders, but are moderating gains (at least in fundamentals, not share price). They still benefit from holding a tight inventory of homes in the US, which will benefit them long term. They peaked earlier, true. He execpts a modest share price recovery.

Owns shares in company.
Expecting growth in home building.
Excellent company with strong management team.
Low level of supply is US housing increasing demand for new housing.
Home builders using finance products (low mortgage interest rates) to stimulate sales. 
Growing steadily.