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Opinions Mike S. Newton, CIM FCSI
Vail Resorts IncMTNCOMMENTFeb 27, 2017
$182.77
Stock price when the opinion was issued
$144.70
As of Jun 18, 2026. Market Open.
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PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jul 18/22, Up 7%)
Expecting further growth of travel.
Poor winter conditions impacting share price.
Very strong assets with best ski hills in the business.
Strong free cash flow with steady dividend.
Good value proposition with season's pass.
Stock price currently undervalued - good time to buy.
Barry SchwartzOwned
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BUY ON WEAKNESS
It has rallied $14 from its low, defying the market sell-off. They just reported a strong quarter, a good fiscal 2022 full-year, and a very bullish forecast. He has liked Vail this even before Covid, and during Covid. They announced a stretegic shift in January 2022 by slashing passes by 20% to sell more season passes to customers who aren't rich. They also reported a beat in June, but the market didn't care. Pass sales are up 7% YOY as of September 2022. Trades at 24x earnings, about half of last November's level. He wouldn't be surprised if shares decline more with the market, but this is a buy during such weakness.
TOP PICK
Same price as during Covid, which makes no sense. Should report strong results. Upcoming pass sales seem strong. All systems go. Acquires any mountains for sale. Strong management. Lots of free cash. High-end clientele insulated from inflation. Yield is 3.47%. (Analysts’ price target is $294.30)
Barry SchwartzOwned
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PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Oct 04/19, Down 5%) Will be opening all resorts in the Fall. Has both day use and overnight properties. Unique properties. Pleasantly surprised by its recovery since March. Can increase revenues by increasing prices and expanding services to its current user base.
David BaskinOwned
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PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jul 30/19, Down 21%) They had to close early because of the pandemic. Will there be a ski season for 2021? Vail says yes, and it's open for hiking now. But people may not want to stay at hotels and eat at restaurants there. No surprise that leisure stocks like this are taking a hit and will benefit greatly from a vaccine.
David BaskinOwned
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BUY
He kept this one. He felt it fell too much. They will come out of this better and bigger. It is a pretty good sport for social distancing. Long term there is nothing better than this business.
Barry SchwartzOwned
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PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jan 07/19, Up 13%) They made skiing a growing and flourishing business. With the epic pass, it is a growth business. It is a great opportunity to own one of the premier companies in the world with a moat around it.
Barry SchwartzOwned
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TOP PICK
They just became the largest ski resort operator in the US with their latest acquisition -- including in Whistler. Their "Epic" pass allows holders to ski at all their resorts. Yield 3.05% (Analysts’ price target is $259.45)
David BaskinOwned
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TOP PICK
It dominates North America ski resorts after just buying 17 of them, like Whistler. It's terrifically run. A lot of these resorts now opereates in all four seasons. It plays into the theme of young people spending on recreation. (Analysts’ price target is $249.45)
David BaskinOwned
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BUY
It's down 35-40% from summer's peak. People didn't like their new pricing plans (season passes). The stock is down more because of fear than results. He's looking for good results this quarter. He likes the stock because MTN has consolidated this industry; it can offer a North American seasonal pass.
TOP PICK
Betting on no recession, and folks are going to travel. Vail has collected some of the best resorts. They spend money acquiring assets, or improving the customer experience of company operations. Generates a lot of free cash. Seriously undervalued. Yield is 2.7%. (Analysts’ price target is $286.88)
Barry SchwartzOwned
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COMMENT
He is very impressed by this company, which has become a consolidator of the ski industry. They offer a pass that lets customers ski at any of their resorts, which lets customers hedge their weather risks. The stock has done unbelievably well.
David BaskinOwned
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Reported results about 3-4 weeks ago, and everything was ticking along very, very nicely. Thinks they recently bought something in the New England states. They continue to buy in Europe. Just as much business is done in the off-skiing seasons, so it an all-season structure. He likes this, and has owned it in the past.