Opinions Norman Levine
Overseas ShipholdingOSGCOMMENTDec 14, 2011
Largely a bulk carrier under a US flag giving them the right to ship from one US port to another US port. Commodity market has been in oversupply which has hurt them. At some point it will be okay.
$9.29
Stock price when the opinion was issued
$5.74
As of Jul 27, 2026. Market Open.
Transportation & Environmental Services
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DON'T BUY
Concerns about shipping. Ton of ships that are commissioned and getting built and there will be an over supply when they are built. Showing economy in China means less demand. Longer term we need to see some capacity rationalization, scrapping. Prefers 316-HK but would not buy unless it comes down.
Transportation & Environmental Services
DON'T BUY
Cancellation of the dividend is a prudent decision on management's part. Day rates for their vessels have been absolutely decimated and this company operates about 116 double hulled vessels. Have more of a focus on the Very Large Crude Carriers. Day rates have come down from about $27,000 per day to about $17,500 per day. He would be a little more optimistic on Teekay Corp (TK-N) which has the largest fleet of Aframaxes which are more manoeuvrable.
Transportation & Environmental Services
DON'T BUY
There are some issues happening with regards to the shipping industry. On the container side you have overcapacity. 2010 was a record year but 2011 was a very poor year and you are generally starting to see freight rates climb. There are others that he would prefer.
Transportation & Environmental Services
COMMENT
Chart shows big downtrend from early 2010. Seems to have a bottom at around $10. Shipping rates have come down dramatically because of large, large ships being built that are the equivalent of 2 so make sure this company has these. From a risk/reward standpoint, you could take a stab right around the current price and at this price should work out.
Transportation & Environmental Services
BUY
Huge capacity of extra ships coming online. All of these guys are loosing money. Good news is that every year ships get scrapped because they are not efficient. There are a record number of new ships being ordered. 2011 will turn out to be the bottom of the trough for them. Because of Iran, a lot of buyers of oil will have to buy oil by ship, which will be a net benefit for these guys.
Transportation & Environmental Services
STRONG BUY
Just added to it. Has been a huge amount of insider buying. Looks like this will be the bottom quarter for them. Worst appears to be over. Looking for upside surprises. Addition of Libyan oil to the market will bring prices down for oil and be a benefit for OSG.
Transportation & Environmental Services
DON'T BUY
Has a lot of head winds to it. Oil tanker business is over developed over the last couple of years. IF we have slow growth in North America it wont bode well for a stock like this. Not a great balance sheet. Keystone will have an impact on tanker shipping North South. But it appears to be cheap.
Transportation & Environmental Services
TOP PICK
Contrarian play. It’s a long-term (3-5 years) play. It is the largest oil tanker company in the world. Oil prices have nothing to do with their rates. What matters to them is the supply/demand balance and number of ships out there. New ships are coming on this year and next. Tangible book value of $65. He thinks it is a triple over 3 years.
Transportation & Environmental Services
