Shell Canada (SHC.TO) Buy, Sell or Hold

Shell Canada (SHC.TO)

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DON'T BUY

A great business and they keep their production completely unhedged. Own 60% of the Athabaskan oil sands project. A high standard of corporate governance. Any downward fluctuation in oil price could create an enormous risk.

DON'T BUY

Getting very expensive in terms of valuation. His model price is $38.

TOP PICK

Has been a bit of a laggard but is now showing growth in profitability.

BUY

Has lagged some of the others in part because the refinery and gasoline operations are a bigger percentage of its overall mix. Its latest quarterly earnings were a little bit disappointing particularily on the cost side, not making the productivity improvements that the market had hoped for.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Has some very good properties. The cash flow in the latter part of '05 and into '06 looks very good. Got a little ahead of itself in terms of the multiples and it looks like there is some profit happening now. Look at buying in the $33/34 range. Looks a little expensive compared to its peers.

WEAK BUY

If he was going to own one of the integrateds with oil sands exposure, it would be this one. Prefers the more pure plays.

BUY

Everyone should be in some energy stocks and this one is as good as any. Well run and good assets.

WEAK BUY

One of the few companies that has negative debt, ie, they have more cash than they do debt. Gives you a play on the oil sands. Along with a lot of the other oil sands stocks, it's had a good run.

TOP PICK

A 0.9% yield. This is the one big multi-national company that, because it had to write down its reserves by 20% last year, it is out there aggessively expanding its resource space. Has the oil sands.

TOP PICK

Just recently its profitability started to pick up again. A later cycle petro chemical stock. ROE level is around 23%.

BUY

On a multiple basis has gotten ahead of some of the other big integrateds. Probably having a rest here. Has good long term potential.

HOLD

An extremely high quality, particularily in the oil sands.

WAIT

Like a lot of other senior oils, it has downside because of price risk. Will follow the price of oil in the short term.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Along with all the oils, this stock has done very well. Recently it had a direct run from $27 to $34 and that needs a correction. If it comes back to about $31, it will be a great buying opportunity.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Have re-energized themselves in the last number of years and have grown substantially. Very supportive of the oil sands company which he expects will be expanded significantly. Would like to add on any pullbacks.

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Shell Canada (SHC.TO)