Stockchase Opinions

Keith RichardsSirius XM Holdings Inc.SIRISELLDec 18, 2013

This looks like one of those stocks that may have rolled over. It definitively broke its trend. He would be bearish on this.

$3.47

Stock price when the opinion was issued

$29.80

As of Jul 24, 2026. Market Open.

Broadcasting
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DON'T BUY

It's no longer the stock he knew. It's become a play on used cars and that's not enough.

COMMENT

Has always really liked this, much more than the Canadian version, because they have the ability to bring in data. The re-subscribe rate is very strong. This has been vacillating between $3 and $4 for a very long time. It makes a lot of sense. The question is how long it will remain an independent operation.

DON'T BUY

Doesn’t like the look of the overall chart. The chart shows this has had higher highs and higher lows from mid-2012 until the latter part of 2013. That series was broken and there was a little bit of a topping formation with a neck line at around $3.50. That neck line has been broken. If you own, look for any kind of a rally to get out.

COMMENT

Chart shows a long uptrend from mid-2012 but the uptrend was broken in the latter part of 2013. Currently in the short term downtrend, however it may be trying to consolidate. This could take a while and if you are not getting much of a dividend, it can be a very long excruciating, painful ride just to own it.

WEAK BUY

After merger of Serius and XM there were cost cutting opportunities. They have a fair bit of financial leverage. He owns XSR-T which he prefers to the parent.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

(Market Call Minute) Still too expensive. They are going to buy back a lot of stock in the next two years. If it dipped he would look at buying it.

COMMENT

This one has been on a very, very good trend. A couple of weeks ago, it pulled back to the trend line but is continuing upwards. As long as it stays in the trend line, it is in great shape.

BUY

Classic take-a-pause-in-an-uptrend. Is in a breakout. Another great sign for the stock. It broke out of a little down flag, which is the sign of a bull market.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick April 3/12. Up 46.51%.)

SELL

(Market Call Minute) Wouldn't own it.

TOP PICK
Liberty Media owns about 40% and recently filed with FCC to see about a take over. This got everybody up in arms. This puts protection on you buying the stock. Have 20 million subscribers and will have $1.5 billion in cash by the end of the year. Own satellites and there may be a move to use broadband satellites, which would be an extra revenue stream.
COMMENT
You have to watch the competition and this is an area that is changing dramatically all the time. Has an absolutely huge debt load of around $3 billion, somewhat parallel to its revenues. The debt load scares the heck out of him. Has started to make money, which potentially bodes well.
DON'T BUY
Great company and product. Since merge, lots of synergies, but stock ran up to over $2 mark and he feels it is fairly valued now.
DON'T BUY
Not going to be a barn burner. People have their play lists on their iPod and so on.