Twin Butte Energy (TBE.TO)

They have to reduce their capital expenditures. Fortunately, they could redirect them into lighter crude. They suffered some write downs in their heavier oil plays. They have a good solid balance sheet and can still pay the dividend. However, oil prices have to eventually return to their higher levels.

This is probably not the best time to be in the stock. They have to do some rationalization of their dividend and the balance sheet. Best to wait for another time. They need to add some assets on the light oil side. She is a little concerned that the inventory issue they had in the past might come back to haunt them.

(Top Pick Sep 4/14, Down 54.45%) What happened was not the oil price but rather another operational hiccup. It is sustainable. They put some very good hedges on for this year. He moved into the convertible debentures.

In his view, this had one of the sustainable dividends paying models. There has been a cut in the dividend which he thinks was prudent. Likes their asset base since they bought some lighter oil assets. Thinks the market has been very, very harsh on the stock, and he would argue that the value well exceeds the current stock price. This is one that he would selectively add to at times when it gets sold off.

On any energy stock that is below the 2012 lows, which this one is, you should be very concerned. The ideal scenario would have been the tax loss selling in December followed by a rebound through January, and then you get out. That seemed to be holding true until we ran into the selling on Monday and Tuesday. If you own, you have to start reducing and do not add to your position. The yield is 15.6%, so the market is clearly saying that that is not going to exist.

This is a “steady Eddie” player. Given that, he thinks it won’t do anything. Dividend is safe and if you are buying it for the dividend, you could buy some. If it’s for capital gain, he doesn’t think you are going to get any.

Management has stated that they want to have a higher dividend yield and have increased their payout. He thinks that in this case they can afford to hold this for a while. Yield of around 13% is a touch of a warning, but is also a concern of how much the price has dropped. He has a target of $2.25 and he likes it on drilling and execution risk.

Notwithstanding a good, sound asset base, it obviously feels the heat at this time. If oil continues to stay weak, below $80, a lot of companies will be looking at cutting their distributions by 15%-20%. Thinks this is already priced into the stock.

Management ran into sharp objects last year. They then had decline rate issues. The dividend is safe. Collect the 13% yield and wait for it to go back up.

Not concerned about the dividend (almost 13%). He feels it has one of the most sustainable dividend models. He likes that they lightened up their heavy oil mix. The drop in May was a production miss on a heavy oil property that really scared people. They cleaned up the operating team. Ride it out.

From a fundamental standpoint we are probably at an entry point. Energy tends to be a late cycle peak, so as the business cycle starts to turn up, one of the last things to move in general has been energy. Currently we do not have strong world GDP figures and growth, so you don’t want to be in energy in a meaningful way for a few months yet. Thinks there is more downside to go.

Management has not been able to achieve what they wanted for 6 quarters. Now they are transitioning toward horizontal wells. The numbers suggest the dividend is sustainable.

The longer term trend line from 2011 shows lower highs with possibly higher lows. It is sort of a long-term meandering sideways looking stock. The energy sector can do pretty good between July and October from the seasonal perspective, so you might get a blip. However, unless it broke that down trending line, he would not be a long-term investor.

Steady and stable, a bit of a yield play. Offers relatively less growth vs. peers. It is a hold rather than a buy. Dividend is almost 11%. Does not see anything fundamentally wrong to lead to a dividend cut, although 11% is worrisome.

(Market Call Minute.) Would stay away from this. Doesn’t have it in his fund, but owns some personally, and he struggles with what to do. Thinks the dividend is probably safe but will never regain the multiple that it had.