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Stockchase Opinions

The Panic-Proof Portfolio (Stockchase Research)Toll Brothers Inc.TOLPAST TOP PICKDec 14, 2021

(A Top Pick Sep 07/21, Up 23.4%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly Our PAST TOP PICK with TOL is progressing well and has achieved its $75 objective. To be disciplined, we recommend covering half the position at this time and trailing up the stop (from $54) to $60.
$70.28

Stock price when the opinion was issued

$154.24

As of Jun 18, 2026. Market Open.

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BUY ON WEAKNESS

Chart is very high right now. Would wait to buy on weakness. Whenever stock price above 200 day moving average - would recommend waiting. 

BUY
Room to run or it's done?

Don't give too much credence to consensus target prices. Likes it very much. All homebuilders are trading at high single digits, inexpensive. 40% of US homeowners have mortgages of 4% or lower, so they're not likely to sell. Opens up field for new homes. He'd continue to hold or buy.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Is concerned with the housing sector. Why aren't 5% interest rates hurting them? Apparently 7.25% will. Demand remains strong, helped by demographics. Buy on weakness, and don't take profits.

TOP PICK

Not concerned about rising interest rates (long term duration mortgages in USA - 30 years).
Strong demand for housing in USA creating lots of business.
Excellent business with strong management team.
Current share price excellent time to buy.

BUY
Posted great numbers today, including strong margins as the costs of materials including lumber have declined a lot. Yes, interest rates are high, but plenty of people bought homes with cash.
DON'T BUY
The housing sector has been rolling over due to rising rates, but hasn't seen many stock downgrades. TOL got downgraded today. It's already Fallen 45% from its highs. The bear case is still alive and well, though. The cost per home remains too high.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jun 15/21, Down 13%) Luxury homebuilder, so not as sensitive to the mortgage market. Still positive on the homebuilders, a lot of the damage from negative economic forecasting is already built in.
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Curated by Michael O'Reilly since 2020.
1550+ opinions with 4.81 rating (one of the best performing expert).

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Dec 21/21, Down 11.4%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O’Reilly Our PAST TOP PICK with TOL has triggered its stop at $60. To remain disciplined, we recommend covering the position at this time. This results in a net investment loss of 7%, when combined with our previous buy recommendation.
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Curated by Michael O'Reilly since 2020.
1550+ opinions with 4.81 rating (one of the best performing expert).

TOP PICK
Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly As one of the largest luxury home builders in the US, we again reiterate TOL as a TOP PICK. Continued low interest rates sparking new construction should allow the company to pay down debt and buy back stock. Recently reported earnings beat analyst expectations by over 20% and ROE is 16%. It pays a small dividend, backed by a payout ratio under 15% of cash flow. It trades at 10x earnings compared to peers at 15x and is just over 1.5x book value. We continue to recommend a stop at $60.00, looking to achieve $80.00 -- upside potential over 16%. Yield 0.99% (Analysts’ price target is $79.75)
BUY
It reports Tuesday. Despite supply shortages, profit margins have been good. Thanks to hybrid work driving housing demand, this stock has been a horse. Today's bad jobs numbers won't effect this.
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Curated by Michael O'Reilly since 2020.
1550+ opinions with 4.81 rating (one of the best performing expert).

TOP PICK
Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly We reiterate our TOP PICK recommendation of TOL as a luxury home builder. Continued low interest rates continues to spark new construction allowing the company to pay down debt, buy back stock, while growing cash reserves. It pays a small dividend, backed by a payout ratio under 15% of cash flow. It trades at 12x earnings and less than 2x book value. We would buy this with a stop loss at $54.00, looking to achieve $75.00 -- upside potential over 16%. Yield 1.07% (Analysts’ price target is $74.10)
BUY
Demand for single-family houses is surging, but homebuilders can't meet demand. So, they can charge what the market can bear (higher prices). TOL is a high-end builder that reported a good quarter yesterday. Their average selling prices and margins were greater than expected, which saw a 33-cent earnings beat off a $1.54. Other metrics, including backlog, hit record levels. This has upside.
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Curated by Michael O'Reilly since 2020.
1550+ opinions with 4.81 rating (one of the best performing expert).

TOP PICK
Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly TOL is one the largest luxury home builders in the US, focusing on "move up" and "empty nesters" looking to upgrade to higher level housing. As the economy returns post-pandemic demand will surge once again. It trades at 14x earnings, compared to peers at 22x. With analyst views on growth, it trades at PEG ratio of less than 1 and is at under 1.5x book value. It pays a small dividend, backed by a payout ratio of about 20% of cashflow. Cash reserves are estimated over $1.3 billion and holding steady. We would buy this with a stop loss at $41, looking to achieve $71 -- upside potential over 22%. Yield 1.18% (Analysts’ price target is $70.91)
BUY

Contrary to bearish fears, Toll Brothers' CEO feels this housing boom has legs and is actually starting to recover to satiate pent-up demand. He agrees. This isn't the eve of the Great Recession; there won't be a housing collapse, because lending laws are much tighter. In May, existing U.S. home prices hit a record high. Homebuilders have excellent credit and the banks are strong.