Rick StuchberryTwilio IncTWLOPAST TOP PICKJul 18, 2018
(Past Top Pick, August 24, 2017, Up 118%) It's in industrial, not consumer tech--computer programmers use it to join the Cloud to their formats. There's still lots of potential here. He hasn't seen any negatives about TWLO. Short positions on this failed.
He last bought this in 2019. It's a long-term holding. He likes it that the CEO bought $10 million in shares. This has broken above its 200-day moving average. They are cost-cutting and managing efficiencies. This has more upside than downside for a long-term investor.
Cloud communications platform. Caters to developers. Difficult time as interest rates went up. Usage-based payment. Sees it growing north of 30% over next 5 years. First, need to see Fed pause hikes. 12-month target of $73.50. Keep your eye on it.
He just sold it. A high beta name with no profits, and down 82% in 2022. An innovative communications platform, but their latest guidance was negative: slower growth in 2023. Will look at it next summer.
(A Top Pick Dec 15/21, Down 82%) Excellent example why you need a diversified portfolio. Unprofitable, speculative names like this should have a lower weight in your portfolio. Victim of the software apocalypse in 2022. He sold. Still a leader with 50% market share. Growth has slowed from 35% to 25%. On his radar, but not buying in the short term.
(A Top Pick Sep 09/21, Down 73%) Used to be the darling. Not now. This is why professional help is so critical. Interest rate spikes are the death knell to unprofitable, highly leveraged tech.
SaaS really got punished with rate hikes, inflation, and supply chain issues. Operating system for the digital world. Story is great, but underlying metrics and free cashflow are of real concern. Loves the company, but it's unprofitable.
In recent weeks and today, she had sold some names and is now buying them back. They're down 45-75% from their 12-month high. But she's looking forward and these names inevitably will be higher than today.
It soared over 400% between 2019 and 2021, but tech stocks that are unprofitable are out of favour. Shares dipped below $100 today. Last montht, they reported an earnings surprise but also guided for a larger-than-expected loss this quarter, so shares got slammed. It's a vicious market. But ever since the mid-May, the market is feeling less hostile to these stocks.
This name has been crushed in the past couple of quarters. There's more pain to go with these names and all tech, but they are certainly more attractive now in terms of PE than a year ago. You must nimble and focus on stronger balance sheets. The next few months of the market will be difficult.
Offers fine, cutting-edge technology, but TWLO hasn't earned any money yet. So, he can't value this company--what is it worth? Shares have plunged with the other tech stocks with high valuations. He avoids such stocks.
High-PE stocks are hard to invest during this stage of the cycle, like SHOP or Twilio, way off their highs, but bounced 15-20% this week. He owns both and believes in them long term, believes in their fundamentals.
A lot of the stocks in this area are still getting their footing. Importantly, they have yet to be profitable. When tech rolled over, these stocks got taken out to the woodshed. Still very solid. Price target of $239. Buy in thirds here around $146, 130 and 120. Stop of between $105-110.
The market is moving out of PE into price/sales. It's tough to be in long-duration assets in this market. But he's holding on, not selling, and is underweight these names. He believes in their business models, though it's tough to feel the pain on the way down. You got to right-size such holdings.
(Past Top Pick, August 24, 2017, Up 118%) It's in industrial, not consumer tech--computer programmers use it to join the Cloud to their formats. There's still lots of potential here. He hasn't seen any negatives about TWLO. Short positions on this failed.