John StephensonUrban OutfittersURBNTOP PICKJan 30, 2017
*Short* They also have 2 other brands, which are 60% of their sales, and those are really struggling. There has been very poor mall traffic. Virtually every department store has been warning. You also have all the cyclicals in vagaries of getting fashion right, which is very hard. (Analysts’ price target is $32.88.)
(A Top Pick Dec 23/20, Up 12.1%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly Our PAST TOP PICK with URBN has triggered its stop at $30. To remain disciplined, we recommend covering the balance of the position at this time. Combined with the previous recommendation to cover half the position, this results in a net investment return over 15%.
(A Top Pick Dec 24/20, Up 39.7%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly Our PAST TOP PICK with URBN is progressing well. We are recommending to trail up the stop to $30. This would all but ensure a minimum investment return exceeding 15%, including the recommendation to cover 50% previously.
(A Top Pick Dec 24/20, Up 19.5%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly Our PAST TOP PICK with URBN has achieved its $32 target. To remain disciplined, we recommend covering 50% and trailing up the stop (from $21) to $25.
Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly URBN has established a strong online presence. New digital customers rose 45% last quarter. The company has had to hire extra workers to fulfill the demand. This is resulting in a sizable increase in cash holdings -- estimated at over $450 million on the year. With vaccines on the way, there is a lot of pent up consumer demand in general. We would trade this with a stop-loss at $21, looking to target $32 -- 18% upside. Yield 0% (Analysts’ price target is $31.41)
If you want growth in North America, you have to focus on retail. Their core constituency is the 18/24 age crowd. In 22 states, so have lots of room to grow. Same store sales are growing very nicely at about 8%.
*Short* They also have 2 other brands, which are 60% of their sales, and those are really struggling. There has been very poor mall traffic. Virtually every department store has been warning. You also have all the cyclicals in vagaries of getting fashion right, which is very hard. (Analysts’ price target is $32.88.)