Canadian Banks. Doesn’t own them as they are Value plays, not Deep Value plays. Trading at 2.5X book. Prefers other non-bank financials. However, there is a lot of cash sitting on the sidelines and, as a consequence, they are a “go to” destination for a lot of cash.
Devaluation of currencies will affect on precious metals, commodities and the world around us. The spread today is about the US$. Over the next 2 years he will price in the reality of what the US$ is really worth. Investors can benefit from figuring out where it is going and how to position themselves.
Industrials. He is 10% underweight. Industrials are very expensive. Would shy away from that group and look to energy and health care (in the US). In Canada he would look at technology (RIM) and the gold stocks.
Gold. Continues to be bullish. Just had a pull back. Technicians will say it had a triple top but the reality is that gold has been in a Bull market for 10 years. Good buying opportunity on a lot of gold stocks.
Copper.Probably the most widely used, diverse commodity globally. If it is going up, this indicates bullishness for the economy. He would play this through stocks.
Option writing in the US versus Canada? He always does it in the US because of liquidity. Chicago Board of Exchange and the various option exchanges are much, much larger than Canada’s. You want a small bit off for spread so when trading options you want more liquidity. Costs are lower.
Suggestions for dividend stocks? Cdn bank shares still look attractive long term. Expecting dividend growth and there will be increases some time this year. Also some of the telecom stocks, such as Manitoba Tel (MBT-T) still look reasonable. Bonavista (BNP-T) is an oil/gas stock that has a very nice distribution.
Strategy has not changed much at all since the 2007 crash. Dividends have always played a roll. They have been tremendous performers since then. We are in the phase of the market where people are afraid of missing the rally. It can be the most exciting, but people focus less and less on risk. Valuations are getting pushed a little bit. Inflation pressures are more of a problem in emerging markets. Now inflation is starting to creep back into North America. He has mostly been trimming around the edges and getting rid of things. It’s time to be careful and cautious.
GOLD: His sense is that there is a huge amount of demand for gold. China allows citizens to purchase it now. India has always been huge purchases of it. The way he looks at it, if you can own a large company that gets it out of the ground at $450, it is a good business.
Oil. Likes the energy complex. We have gotten used to $90 and $100 but the next $100 is going to be a lot more difficult to swallow. Could result in demand destruction.
Is it a good time to be buying high dividend US stocks with the strong Cdn$? Would discourage looking at US stocks based on making a bet on the exchange rate. First you should see if the US market is appropriately valued. What does it do to your portfolio with what you already own and does it double up on anything you already have?
Deep in the Money Call Options (e.g. $50 stock with a $30 Strike Price) versus underlying stocks? Not a real fan of these because if you are going into the options market you are effectively gaining the advantage of having limited risks.
Manulife’s Income Plus. Doesn’t like it at all. Ridiculously expensive. Also the trouble Manulife is having with its balance sheet might also be a problem.
When should you consider borrowing money to invest in equities? There are 2 times. When interest rates are low and the market is egregiously cheap such as 2008. (Market is probably fairly priced today.) The other time is when you use something like a Macquarie Equity plus product (?) where you can guarantee that you are not going to lose money but this is expensive.