Vertex Fund: You have to understand the risk in this trade. If their view of the market isn’t in favour, it could take some time to make money. It isn’t a straight up ride.
Fiera Market Neutral Fund: Conservative end of spectrum. Buy N.A. equities in a pairs fashion. Long a stock in one area and short another stock that isn’t doing well. 60% over 4 years. Low, low volatility.
Picton Mahoney Income Opportunities fund: If you are concerned about your Government/corporate bond portfolio, this is a diverse, nimble strategy in the income space. He’s up 8% since start of year.
Spartan Multi Strategy Fund: Experience and discipline from managers that are former floor traders and market makers. Strength is capitalizing on volatility. Held up well over 4 years. Not a buy and hold strategy.
Opec would like to see oil in the $75 range. Year to date, European demand has been down. Resurgence in jet fuel in the US. Chinese demand has been up. Natural gas rally is still very weak. We are testing the limits of storage of natural gas. Is paring back natural gas exposure in his portfolios. You get the most torque in the small caps. There’s enough opportunity in Aberta.
Looking for an overall 1% increase in oil demand. OPEC spare capacity is 5.5 Million Barrels per day. Until we chew through excess capacity we will stay in the $75-$80 range for 2 to 3 years. Natural gas rally last week is nothing more than a ‘suckers’ rally. The fundamentals are awful. We are looking at 10% growth in Nat Gas supply this year in the US. He buys good, liquid companies with good balance sheets, existing production, with meaningful upsides, good management teams.
The Euro-debt crisis: We are the most important market for the US. Europe is only about 5%-10%, so Euro-debt crisis will only have a modest impact. Bernanke may be right but he didn’t predict the last recession very well. Continues not to see a ‘V’ shaped recovery. Gold has become a currency. Almost all currencies are racing for the bottom.
REITs – after in 2011 will they have more capital appreciation? Investors are attracted to the yield – stable, although not likely to grow. Not affected by income trusts going out. Some income trust investors will cycle money into REITs.
S&P 500 – we have been below the 200-day moving average for about 3 weeks. The action today was very negative. 1120 was a 50% retracement level from 2008 and we are below that. There is support at the 1066 level and we are below that. He can see another 30 point drop and then we run into some resistance. 1020-1030 – if we break through this support we are in trouble. He is 40% exposed to equity and will continue hedging and selling.
Average of the stocks in his portfolio have been held for 3.5 years of more. His VP has started a portfolio that allows cheaper stocks and more dividends.