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A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

COMMENT
Stagflation: Commodity prices are firming up ahead of the stock market. Will this put pressure on companies with margins if these companies if the prices firm up too much? Yes. People have to reposition their portfolios differently and be prepared for much higher inflation and much higher economic times.
COMMENT
Leveraging the US$ against the Canadian$ there is either the HBP US$ Bull+ (HDU-T) or HBP US$ Bear.
TOP PICK
High-quality corporate bonds. The credit spreads in the marketplace are wider than we have seen in a long time. There is a fear in the market of default but if you stick to the higher-quality companies, it is a great opportunity. Bonds will lead the equity market.
TOP PICK
Value-biased equities. If you are looking to get into the market and you like the valuations, the growth side has outperformed over the last 18-20 months to a point where the price/book ratio of value stocks to growth stocks is at its widest point in history.
TOP PICK
Preferred shares. Great opportunity in terms of spreads, but also have precedence over common equity. Expect some spread tightening, which will give you, price appreciation.
TOP PICK
Canadian bank preferred shares. He owns National (NA-T), CIBC (CM-T) and Royal (RY-T). Getting 6.2%-6.6% along with a preferred tax credit. In for 5 years with a possible renewal.
COMMENT
US$ vs. Cdn$: Doesn’t understand why the US$ is so high. They will have a deficit of $1.7 trillion, which is crazy. There is a relativity aspect here as so many other countries are printing money too.
COMMENT
Silver: Poor man’s gold. Thinks we will see higher inflation in a couple of years and silver will be some sort of a hedge against that. Realize that its industrial uses are fast disappearing. You would do better with gold.
DON'T BUY
Gold: Has very strong seasonal characteristics. Tends to move flat to slightly lower from end of January through to end of June. He is a long-term bull on gold but you are currently in a period where it doesn't do well. He would wait until July and ending in September.
BUY
Platinum: Seasonal strength is from January to May each year. Significantly outperforming gold at this time. Auto sales will have an effect. Auto sales in Germany rose 22% in January. India 20% in February. China had an all-time high in January.
BUY
Oil: Crude broke a short-term resistance level March 6 and moved to a 6 week high. Should move higher between now and the end of May. On a technical basis the key level is just over $50 and if it breaks that it completes a gorgeous reversal pattern and he could easily see a technical target of $65.
TOP PICK
Lafarge North America 10.93% Bond due July 15, 2016. Manufactures cement so a good play on infrastructure.
BUY
COMMENT
Oil: He models oil prices and his model shows $72. This is based on fundamental factors such as global economic growth, inventory levels, storage, etc. Also most analysts think oil, long term, will go higher than where it is. Investors should slowly build positions in the better names.
COMMENT
Tax Fee Savings Accounts: 3 names in oil/gas that he would invest in for a 3 to 5 year period are Suncor (SU-T), Encana (ECA-T) and Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ-T). Likes CNQ for its leverage, Suncor for the oil sands and Encana because it is a benchmark company.
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