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A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

COMMENT
Market Outlook: He noticed that when the market was going down, it was on high volume but when it was going up, it was on low-volume and was rallying to lower highs. This shows a lack of conviction on the rallies. Indicates the market has further down to go. Would not put too much new money into the market yet.
DON'T BUY
US Banks: Still more cockroaches to come. It looks like, in the short run, US banks have bottomed but he can't say this for sure. Wait until there is more clarity.
COMMENT
Uranium Prices: Has been quite negative in the last few weeks. Expect it will retest the August lows of $75. This would be the time you want to re-enter the uranium sector.
DON'T BUY
Forestry: This has not reached its lows. There are still too many houses being built in the US, given demand. Also, pulp prices have not been that strong.
COMMENT
Gold: Doesn’t think of this as a safe haven as historically, it has proven not to be.
COMMENT
Oil: For the first time, in 2007, physical demand of about 87 million barrels was greater than physical supply of 86 million so inventories drop in prices went up. Believes that in the 2nd quarter of 2008, after Saudi Arabia brings on their new field of 500,000 barrels, there will be no new production coming on from OPEC. We will have to find 4 million or 7 million new barrels a year. It is conceivable that oil will be $150 by 2010.
COMMENT
Gold Formula: US recession plus US economy really weak plus really low US rates equals an international week US dollar and stronger gold prices.
COMMENT
Natural Gas: A year from now he expects the Canadian price to be in the $7.75 to $8.50 range. Expected to be about 10% higher in the US.
BUY
Gold: Would say that it is still heading up. The gurus are saying that it should go through $1000. The mines are more interesting than they used to be and it is validly a sector. Would buy the companies, but not the ETF’s.
COMMENT
Gold: Has moved quite dramatically because of the weaker US$ and the expansion of the Asian economy. There has been a little bit of weakness, which could continue. With the US economy starting to slow he believes many investors are much too optimistic on growth in the Far East, but the US is still their #1 customer.
COMMENT
Base Metals: He has sold almost all the base metals that he has in his fund because he believes the US is going into recession.
HOLD
Preferred Shares: These have had a very period from October on. This has to do with the credit crunch. We are getting to the point on the income side where these are pretty attractive dividends. He would buy the preferreds of the banks before he would buy the common.
BUY
Pipelines: In this kind of market, these are great stocks to hold. Likes the yield and the constrained capacity. Very predictable. A Buy, but wait until the smoke clears.
COMMENT
Market Strategy: TSX broke a very critical support level today in the next level is at 12,500. S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite broke key support levels also. Market has been most heavily oversold in a decade. This is the time to buy.
COMMENT
Natural Gas: The price has been trending up lately and in his view, it is only a seasonal thing. You'll have to wait for a while before you see very much of a long-term improvement.
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