Normally there seems to be a window of correction from the winter rally into the summer driving season. Over May/June it is possible the market may pull back by 10%. That would be a fabulous buying opportunity. The index of 338 could back off to 310 but could be 400 by the end of year.
Bryan gave the different ratings of the banks by giving their upside. National Bank (NA-T) 28%; Bank of Montréal (BMO-T) 13%; Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS-T) 12%; CIBC (CM-T) 3%; Toronto Dominion (TD-T) 7%.
Natural Gas: - Big curtailment in drilling activity in 2006 and gas prices are now at $8. Inventory levels are below last year's levels. Weather forecasters are predicting a much more severe year for hurricanes. Should be a better year for gas stocks.
Uranium: - Very much a bull on uranium and feels it could reach $150 to $200 in the next 2 years. It had a large move this year from $72 to $113. Last year, the world's top 10 producing uranium mines all had production shortfalls. Current production only supplies 59% of annual consumption. New energy demand is growing at only 4 X the rate of new mineable supply. Excess stockpiles have been dwindling fast. New nuclear reactors have been growing dramatically.
Uranium: - Everybody recognizes that there is going to be a tremendous number of nuclear reactors built in North America, but because of a length of time for construction, uranium will be needed for 10 years. Feels that the $90-$100 price is unsustainable.
Oil/Gas: - Most companies in this sector (including the service companies) suffered from a weak 4th quarter due to both a drop in the price of oil and gas as well as higher production and drilling costs. She expects Q1 to be soft and Q2 to be softer. Looking for a recovery in until late 2007 and early 2008.
Natural Gas: - Shorter term there could be some weakness as we head into a seasonal weak period. A key number to watch is natural gas storage. If it is at 1.4 trillion cubic feet on April 1, that would be bullish for the market. Because of less drilling, exports to the US have declined substantially. Medium to long-term, he is bullish.
Uranium: - We’re past the 5th inning in the uranium game. Expect we will see a separation between the real producers versus the ones using the name “uranium”.
Gold : - Overall gold remains strong. Best way to track is to watch the physical market that trades overseas overnight and if the premium to physical bullion goes to a premium or discount. A discount means a lot of physical bullion is being sold. Market is climbing a wall of worry, which is what you want to see. Looking for $735 this summer.
Base Metals: - Current market conditions will soften economies globally. Base metals are very sensitive to the economies. The only base metal he likes, outside of uranium, is cobalt.
Top picks (DD-N) and (DE-N) are based on 2 major emerging trends. 1) Increasing wealth in the Far East will see a switch in dietary habits from rice to protein. Demand for soybeans will grow like crazy. 2) Growth of ethanol demand will require a major investment by farmers in new equipment.
Ibiden - A ceramic packaging company. A really exciting part of their business is the diesel particulate filter business. (Ed. - Could not find it listed on exchanges.)