A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

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The new investors who fuelled the Reddit short squeeze seem to be bowing out. One reason is that some of their stocks got crashed. Meanwhile, professional money managers have moved onto reopening plays and increasingly more back into big tech stocks. Those young, new investors still holding those Reddit stocks are waiting for them to bounce back to former lofty levels, but he doubts they will. The lesson: an investors needs to diversify into financials, retails or the rails. Boring stocks, but you need them.
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Billy Kawasaki’s Insights - Billy’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. The government is providing liquidity to the system through QE. More access to capital should mean banks are more willing to lend. However, savings rates have increased dramatically while spending and investments have not occurred at the pace that was expected. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

COMMENT
Too much euphoria in the market? Not sure it's euphoria. Aren't markets supposed to go up? 2019 and 2020 were spectacular years. And people are thinking the good news we expected in 2021, actually took place in 2020. Markets don't go up every single year. Even in times of good economies and fundamentals, the stock market will do whatever it likes.
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Just a sugar high with governments propping up the economy and low interest rates? Go back to January 2020, the outlook was really good. This is what governments do to protect the economy, people and business. Hopefully it's onwards and upwards from here.
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Interested in energy? No. He doesn't want oil to go negative or stay low. But we have to start preparing for a post-carbon world, and we have to get there sooner rather than later. You don't want oil to drive economies for the next 30 years. He'd rather own companies that can set prices for customers, rather than betting whether the price of oil will go up or down.
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Outlook for rails as coal is phased out. CP rail still moves a fair bit of thermal coal, which is decreasing. CNR gets more of its revenue from metallurgical coal, which is increasing. Both provide only a small portion of revenues. They also move chemicals, lumber, autos. If you're betting on worldwide economic recovery for many years, as he is, you have to own the railroads. He's a bit nervous about the acquisition of KCS, but if that goes through, could be terrific. Incredible performers over the long term, and no reason this will stop. He owns CNR, but would have no problem holding CP. Keep holding.

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Canadian or US banks, lifecos, car makers, or FANGs? Thinks of best business first, and then country second. His clients own National Bank, TD, RY, and JPM. Best banks with the best management teams. Jaime Dimon at JPM is the very best. In Canada, his favourite is always National, with smart acquisitions and growing in wealth management. All Canadian banks are under-levered. You have to be there.

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Interested in lifecos? Not as much. It's a harder business to figure out. Though as interest rates go up, it is beneficial for the lifecos.
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Pipelines. Not that interested. Scarcity argument is a strong one for putting value on pipelines. They were cheap in 2020, but not now. Also face concern about rising interest rates.
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Canadian housing market. Strong housing market is related to low interest rates. Hard to imagine it getting weaker. Rates will remain historically quite low, but at some point, the BoC rate decision will be reversed. If you can afford it, go ahead. If you can't and you're speculating, good luck to you.
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What's your approach for tech these days? A wrestling match between the markets and interest rates. Everyone is expecting inflation and rates to go higher, which has impacted tech stocks and the darlings in the reopening stocks. He's sticking to his knitting. Invest in the leaders in long-run, lucrative technology runways. At this stage, the runways are a lot longer than he's seen in a while. At least half of the stocks he owns or are on his radar have 20-30-35% upside from current prices. The pullback has provided opportunity.
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Any bargains in tech? Yes. There's been a pullback in the IGB, a barometer of SaaS, of almost 40% in some stocks. But it's up almost 2.5% today. Eventually, people will come back. Thankfully, semis and cloud providers have just been treading water. In the 2nd quarter, perhaps we'll see some tech leadership coming from software, semis, and cloud providers.
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Billy Kawasaki’s Insights - Billy’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. Valuations are contributing to the correction in tech stocks. Tech stocks can do well in a higher rate environment but it must be accompanied by good economic growth. The market rotation could last for another 3-6 months. It is recommended to include some income stocks and to not have all tech stocks. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

COMMENT
Welcome to the counter-trend rally. Today, the battered growth tech stocks rebounded (about 1.5%). A trend or a short reprieve? Apple, Amazon and Adobe shares have been hammered, despite strong quarters, because Q1 was all about the Great Reopening, driven by vaccinations.
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When rates rise higher because of inflation, that's good for real estate. We're seeing pent-up demand, which bodes well for real estate long term. true, borrowing costs would rise, but in real estate everything is priced off a spread and interest rates are still at generational lows. Also, the yield on publicly available real estate investments remains attractive compared to corporate bond yields. Finally, the US sunbelt still looks good enjoying strong demand (i.e. Tennessee, Florida) based on Americans migrating to cheaper housing prices.
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