Market Commentary — Page 424

Market Commentary

N/A

Market. He is focused on those big companies that have deposit receipts (ADRs). There are markets that are not that safe but ADRs are. This was the last chance the Americans had the chance to rein in China and make it stick in terms of making them conform in terms if intellectual property rights. The manufacturing in China is trailing off and is impacting China. Chinese markets have had a steel correction. It has been pulled back hard. While FB-Q and AMZN-Q are mostly in the US, The Chinese companies are expanding much more. He is into them.

DON'T BUY

He was exited the REIT sector when the rates were making the turn. That does not mean there aren't good REIT companies in that sector. He thinks with interest rates rising, it would be a headwind on the sector. He would stick with the bigger guys.

COMMENT

We're in a time of slower economic growth. The TSX has been a tear so far in 2019, but we're not out of the woods yet. The TSX has gone nowhere for five years. Now is just a technical bounce, but he could be wrong. The pullback last fall meant that markets couldn't handle rising rates. We are very indebted. After all, interest rates are at historic lows. He's keeping an eye on the junk bond market; if those continue to widen, we'll see a serious downtown, a recession. Non-financial corporate debt is really high, issued with few checks and balances. He thinks both central banks in Canada and the U.S. have stopped raising rates for now. Maybe 0.25% more. He expects a recession next year. Rates may even fall back to zero (perhaps negative rates), and we will get back to quantitative easing. We're in a market addicted to cheap, readily available money. How do we break this habit?

COMMENT

Market Outlook He is not really buying into the full rally mode of the market. He is holding a larger amount of cash than normal. He is not sure we have seen the lows yet. He does not buy into a "V" bottom. Nobody really knows. The key is to own companies that you can own for the long run. Don't try to guess what the market is going to do in the short run. He is looking to get back into the Canadian oil sector. Although he doesn't like the political environment, he thinks it is too oversold now.

COMMENT

Are banks a good investment? He is not big into Canadian banks. There is a small US hedge fund shorting Canadian banks on the expectation of a slowing housing market. He is not saying it will be anything like the US banking system was, but he actually is holding more US banks today. He sees Vancouver and Toronto real estate markets starting to plateau.

COMMENT

People were overly negative last quarter and it didn't make sense stocks sold-off that hard. We're not having a rally off the Fed being more dovish. He predicts 2019 will be a good year. Now, we see a fear of the market moving higher as investors jump back in. The pain trade is to the upside. FOMO. Earnings are 15% YOY growth in the U.S. There's some great news out there. The TSX is off to a strong start in 2019; global growth will only help Canada, where we got so crushed to the downside.

COMMENT

What's today's rally due to? On the back of tech selling last year, people are sitting cash and jumping back in. His concern is that don't forget US firms had benefit of tax cuts last year. Now they have to show real earnings, not something artificial. Last year was similar to 2011, where there was a correction of 20% and then 5 years of straight up. He has 20% cash, so still being defensive. If a portfolio manager can beat the benchmark by about 2% after fees, they've done well.

COMMENT

Do you see the rally continuing for 2019? For the Russell 2000, it's risk on again, since biggest movers had little volume or were penny stocks. The expectation is that US rates won't rise and will probably stay neutral. If there's an agreement between US and China, multinationals can start earning greater profits because the currency won't kill them. If we get an inverse yield curve, corporations will still suffer, as it reduces money in innovation, prompts hiring freezes, and reduces M&A activity. Have we seen peak margins that could trigger an earnings recession, rather than an actual economic one?

COMMENT

More M&As in 2019? Yes, if capital is available. But there's a lot of leverage out there. Plus, banks' profit growth is not as high because they're buying back shares. This market is still priced for perfection.

COMMENT

Cash position for 2019. Has 20% cash right now, based on the fixed income part of a portfolio. Cash is deemed to be a synthetic short. Pays off when you get a quarter like Q4 of 2018.

COMMENT

Tech, healthcare, or military? Comes down to correlation risk. One tech, one healthcare, one defence, one bank, so you have 30 diversified stocks. For example, if you own Microsoft, don't buy another tech stock. If markets fall, it'll take you years to get back to break even. Correlation risk is the worst thing that people can have.

COMMENT

Thoughts on Brexit? Britain isn't the big empire it used to be. It needs immigrants because the population isn't growing. The British companies he owns are benefiting from the drop in the pound. During the Greek crisis, his companies had no more than 30-40% of revenues from within Europe, so if things blow up, he won't get hurt too badly.

N/A

Market. It should be a lot better than 2018 this year. No Santa Clause rally – we had the Grinch. He doesn't know if the US shutdown will get resolved in January or February. By the end of February we should know what happens with China trade negotiations. In Canada he thinks interest rates are on hold for at least 6 months. He likes Canadian companies that export to the US. If Saudi and Russia are serious about curtailing supply then oil could break out of $60, otherwise it will be range bound.

BUY

Banks. The dividend tax credit will not apply to US banks. Canadian banks have come down to a discount to the US banks. He has RY-T, BNS-T and TD-T. He thinks there is still growth in Canadian banks. Stick with Canadian banks. See top picks today.

COMMENT

Market Outlook A technical analyst recently suggested the recent pullbacks in markets don't really tell the true story. He focuses on advance-decline lines which suggest the market is doing much better and is actually beginning a new up leg. A lot of stocks hit their lows on Christmas eve -- window dressing and tax loss selling. Oil stocks have only retraced 1/3 of the pull back and he thinks there is more upside to come.

Showing 6,346 to 6,360 of 18,631 entries

Most Recent Experts

Stockchase Insights

5i Research

Brian Acker, CA

Acker Finley Inc.

The Weekly Buzzing Stocks by Billy Kawasaki

Stockchase

David Burrows

Barometer Capital Management

Jim Cramer - Mad Money

CNBC

Stockchase, in its reporting on what has been discussed by individuals on business television programs (in particular Business News Network), neither recommends nor promotes any investment strategies.

We paraphrase the experts by hand, we watch the shows and write down what we understood from the experts’ comments. We are human and can make mistakes, help us fix any errors. If you see something that you know is not right or if there is a problem with the site, feel free to email us at : [email protected].

A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

Market. (A Commentary)

He was exited the REIT sector (A Commentary)

A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert(A Commentary)

Market Outlook(A Commentary)

Are banks a good investment?(A Commentary)

A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert(A Commentary)

What's today's rally due to?(A Commentary)

Do you see the rally continuing for 2019?(A Commentary)

More M&As in 2019?(A Commentary)

Cash position for 2019.(A Commentary)

Tech, healthcare, or military?(A Commentary)

Thoughts on Brexit?(A Commentary)

Market. (A Commentary)

Banks. (A Commentary)

Market Outlook(A Commentary)

Latest Buy Signals

Today's Top Picks

Popular Articles

Latest Sell Signals

Most Recent Experts

Stockchase Insights

Brian Acker, CA

The Weekly Buzzing Stocks by Billy Kawasaki

David Burrows

Jim Cramer - Mad Money