Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM.TO)

For the last 18 months or so, he has been particularly bearish on gold. Gold is getting to a point where it has been pretty well sold-out. Certainly a lot of the stocks are extended to the downside. If we are in a longer-term downtrend for gold, which we probably are, it doesn’t mean you can’t have great trading rallies. Doesn’t believe it will be more than a couple of month’s rally, so look at the best performing stocks in the group. This one is certainly acting better, and has based out over the last year. Detour Gold (DGC-T) is one you could look at for a trade.

Well-run business and very strong management team. Portfolio is in places that he likes, such as Canada, Mexico and Finland. Q1 saw very strong results from their Meadowbank mine, which gave a grade that beat expectations, but ultimately that grade bump is temporary as we will probably see it come off in the back half of the year. This is on the expensive side of the spectrum. Trades at probably 1.5-1.6 times on his fundamental net asset value. Likes their acquisition of Osisko (OSK-T), which will help their free cash flow, production and cost profile.

(A Top Pick May 31/13. Down 0.12%.) One of the better managed gold stocks. Still likes it.

Oct to May is seasonal strength so don’t step in now. It corrected and he expects it goes down to $16. The breakout was at $13 mid last year.

What he sees in these mergers and acquisitions deals is that companies are paying much too much for assets that they buy and later regretting it. That may be one of the things going on here. His feeling on precious metals is decidedly negative right now. You would think that with all the crises going on globally that gold would be going up, but instead gold is fighting to stay above $1300 and silver is under $20.

He is not a gold bug and owns no gold stocks at present. He has GLD, but is not excited about it. AEM and G-T are probably two of the best ones if you want to own gold, however.

If you need to own a precious metal you need one that delivers. This one has a great growth profile. It is THE company of size that benefits from the Canadian dollar weakness.

(A Top Pick May 31/13. Up 12.4%.) Last year, gold was down 20% and stocks were down 45%-50%. A big overreaction on the downside. This company is still one of the lower costs, more well managed mines. Good new mines coming on stream in the next several years. Still likes.

(Top Pick Feb 22/13, Down 10.66%) We are testing the 200 day moving average in gold. Thinks there are a lot of legs to this market and a lot of smart money is coming into it. Low cost of production, lots of cash flow they are spending on projects. On execution, management, assets, it is one of the best.

(A top pick Feb 22/13. Down 14.39%.) The important thing about all the producers is that they are pricing in a much, much lower price for gold then $1200. The physical demand for gold over the last year and its price has a complete disconnect.

(Market Call Minute) When billion turns, look out. This one will soar. When? Sometimes this year when we find out the QE program isn’t working and must be renewed but more so.

(A Top Pick Nov 30/12. Down 50.22%.) All of these companies have been going sideways since about June so they have been building a really solid base. Not cutting back on production. Kicking on all cylinders. Ready for whatever comes next.

Expect golds at this time are largely un-investable. You can’t touch these things. Have had incredible losses over the year and big volatility. He stays away from losing positions that have big volatility.

Gold seasonality is from July to the beginning of October. It can do okay in November. Technically, if it breaks past about the $30 level, it will be quite positive. It is out of season, so not something he is interested in.

We are getting late in the game for gold in terms of seasonality. Sector has been so weak that there will be a lot of tax loss selling.