Athabasca Oil Sands Corp (ATH.TO) Buy, Sell…

Athabasca Oil Sands Corp (ATH.TO)

10.70

+0.16 (1.52%)

as of Jun 19, 2026, 8:00:01 pm Market Open.

146 watching

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Nov 05/21, Up 116%) One of the top 10 holdings. Own 50 million shares. Within next few weeks expecting announcement of 75% return of cash to shareholders. Given valuation, wanting more buybacks.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Nov 05/21, Up 94%) It did a refinancing and deferred the catalyst of shareholder returns. Will pay back in two months with a 75% return. Over 30 years reserves with good tax loss picture so will not be taxed for a long time. Should go to $6. He is the largest shareholder.

BUY

Is largest shareholder in the company (~50 million share). Expecting debt to be paid down in the next few months. Trading at ~30% free cash flow yield and ~1.8x. Massive tax pools providing large amount of value. Expecting a $5 share price.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Volatile share price with high exposure to energy prices. Operations are high cost (Duvernay shale & heavy oil sands operations). Assets have a lot of operating leverage. If oil prices drop, share price will fall quickly (large amount of torque).

BUY

Has bought more shares in the company (55 million shares or 9.6%). Seeing meaningful upside in the company. Expecting company to be debt free by the end of the year. Currently trading at ~2x cash flow and 26% free cash flow yield. Company should be returning capital back to shareholders (dividends and share buybacks). 5x multiple would value the company at around $5 share price.

BUY

Bought at $0.18 and sold at $1.32 (currently trading ~$2.00). Lesson in selling too early. Matt Taylor (CFO) is excellent at selling company. Currently trading at 46% free cash flow yield ($100 oil). Should be trading around $4.00 share price ($100 oil). Paying down debt and production hedged.

BUY

Company has extremely high torque to oil price given financial structure of company. Is a good long term hold. Absolute valuation of the company remains undervalued. Valuation relative to other Canadian energy companies is fair.

BUY

They had finance fears for their notes that were due. Now they have good leverage to rising prices. You are buying for the oil sands assets. Now, they also have huge tax losses that can be useful. Selling at 1x free cashflow if you give value to the tax losses. There is still good upside and is still a meaningful shareholder.

TOP PICK

The re-financing got done successfully. Now they plan to be debt free in one year. Becoming a more popular model in small caps to finance with banks like they did. They will raise dividends in 2023. They are sitting on $2.4B on high value tax losses that can be valuable for an acquirer. Stock is trading at 1.5x free cash flow right now. Still sees upside. (Analysts’ price target is $1.31)

RISKY

Higher debt leverage, high operating costs. SU, CNQ or CVE have much more sustainable, quality profits. If oil goes higher, you'll make more money with this one. But understand that it's a riskier bet. If things go down, this type of stock will really crater.

BUY

Bought at 0.18 cents and the stock has rallied. Bought it for rerating in cashflow. Stock has worked out well. The next catalyst is to refinance debt that is due February of next year. The notes are trading at 0.98 cents which means the bond market thinks it will get refinanced. Positive catalyst for the shares.

BUY

It was the banks that had forced small and mid-caps with horrendous hedges. Now they have rolled off. Bought 9.9% off Equinor. With Cardinal, this gives you the highest leverage to the rising oil price. Will probably be successful with renewing their notes. If you buy, you are betting that this will go well. Could trade at 4x multiple.

BUY

Could buy up to 10% outstanding shares at current cashflow and pay 4-7% dividend. The issue for them is refinancing their note due February of next year at $450M USD. At $50 oil, they were generating $14M in free cashflow, at $70 it is $274M free cashflow which is 70% free cashflow yield. Remains one of the highest leverage to higher oil prices.

TOP PICK

No one is looking in the small cap where there are huge opportunities. Still see meaningful upside. $60 oil means their free cashflow goes up by 10x. At $60 oil, it would generate $144M of free cashflow. Leveraged to the oil price. 54% free cashflow yield and the name would trade at a 3x multiple. Could go to $0.90 share price. At $70 oil, could go above $1.00. Must refinance debt but expects positive outcomes. There is some risk. (Analysts’ price target is $0.47)

BUY

Bought 9.9% of ATH at around $0.15 and now it is at $0.48. At $60 oil brings up their free cashflow by 10 times. You can generate $140M in free cashflow. Entered into deplorable hedging for the first half of this year. Need to give them a pass. Debt refinancing coming up is a huge catalyst. If they are succesful it will be a rerate in the stock. At $60 oil at 4x cashflow, it is worth $0.93 which is a 102% upside. One of the best names for oil leverage, but not for the faint of heart.

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Athabasca Oil Sands Corp (ATH.TO)