Crescent Point Energy Corp (CPG.TO)

Volatile sector. Energy is #18 of 18 short term, #8 long term. Lots of undervaluation in the sector. Decent dividend. Stable chart. Plays into the slower-paced move to sustainable energy, creating a bid under the energy sector.

Their recent acquisition could be synergistic. Is bullish energy, but CPG isn't on his radar. Can't find a reason to buy it.

It has had a recent drop with the acquisition. The basing pattern interests him especially if the dividend holds, but he prefers Pembina Pipelines and others in this space,.

Hammerhead was a good deal, horrific timing with oil falling overnight. Deal is 11% accretive on free cashflow per share, extended premium inventory life from 15 years to 20. He sees 75% potential upside at $80 oil. Yield is 4.21%.

He's pro-M&A, if it allows a company to pay shareholders more. CEO promised him last week that the company "is done" with M&A. 

Never a good sign when your stock issue gets hung up. Timing wasn't ideal, with weaker sentiment on oil below $80. New concerns about acquisition binges. Special dividend was a "teaser". On the sidelines, due to short-term indigestion on the acquisition. May need dispositions to bring debt back down.

Expecting 100% upside at current share price. Transitioned from SE Saskatchewan to Montney play in BC (decades of inventory). Largest active shareholder in company. Trading under 3x cash flow given $80 oil price. New frac technique allowing for large increase of production from oil wells. Expecting ~$21 share price.
 

Darling within energy sector. Expecting strong performance over the long term. Highly correlated to energy prices. Would prefer CNQ shares as is very liquid. Good company, with strong management team. 

Looks really good for the small- to mid-cap energy space in Canada. At 2.4x, cheaper than peers at 3.4x. Decent dividend, some solid execution. Cashflow rising. Production growth profile of 7%. Investable. But do you want to buy now with a crowded trade and oil prices higher than they'll be in future?

Successfully transitioned into long reserve life company (Duvernay & Montney).
Largest oil wells in Canada.
Returning 60% of free cash flow yield to investors.
~15 years of high quality inventory.
Expecting 100% upside at current share price.
Dividend yield ~3% and will also issue special dividends.

It has done well this year. In general energy stocks are good to buy when the economy turns negative and energy prices drop. Don't buy these stocks at peak energy prices.

Had traded this many times. History suggests the chart will break out for a while. Keep in mind that it could pullback to the $10 neckline, but that's still positive. The chart looks constructive.

Focusing portfolio more on deeper oil/gas Alberta plays. Cheap. Buying back stock, increasing dividends. Around 3-4x cashflow. Yield is 3.3%.