Dennis da Silva

Seeing a moderation. He's in the camp that thinks the Fed is done, and yesterday's print reinforced that.

With the invasion of Israel by Hamas, we saw the risk premium come into oil. That's dissipated completely, as now oil's below $80.  Strength in fundamentals has gotten sidetracked by sentiment and general concern about where the demand will be in 2024 if the economy does slow down.

He's constructive. History over 40 years shows gold performs very well after significant rate hikes move into easing, averaging 34%. He's looking for that in 2024, where headwinds of USD strength and rapid rate hikes will have dissipated. They'll be taken over by geopolitical risks and strength on the demand side for gold.

It's up from 3-4 years ago, but relatively flat since mid-2021/beginning of 2022.

He's very encouraged that gold has remained resilient around $1800 and, more recently, around $1900. All this, despite headwinds of a strong USD and rapidly rising real rates. Setup's quite good for gold. Once those things start to disappear into the rearview mirror, it opens the door for gold to break through $2000 and find a floor there, a very important psychological level.

Bit of a tech company, as it uses direct lithium extraction from depleted gas reservoirs. More environmentally friendly process. Not successful commercially outside China. Key is if it can be scaled. Lithium is well off peaks, starting to look interesting, but this name is speculative.

A behemoth in the Montney region. Good cost control, highly regarded management. Close second to TOU, always one of his Top Picks. Pretty good performance relative to peers. Be patient. $25 would not be difficult, especially as LNG builds out in Canada and prices firm up globally.

CEO has a glorious history in the space. Caught up in nickel prices. For things to hum, need nickel in $12-15 range. General malaise in nickel, despite excitement around energy transition. ESG agenda. 

In line with peers over the last 18-24 months, not doing much. Symptom of sentiment. Top-tier name, good management, excellent balance sheet, good ROC, attractive yield. But that's not enough until gold breaks, and holds above, $2000 USD/oz.

Levered to oil price. Changed asset base toward profitability and scalability. Needs to improve drilling efficiencies and margins. Good job reducing debt. Probably by early 2024, can move return of free cashflow to shareholders from 25% to 50%. Yields just over 5%. He's focused on bigger players with more consistent dividend payments.

Merger with CXB. Could argue that this takes away the true upside of the Valentine project, which is under construction. Met a shortfall in financing to complete the mine. From CXB's view, you could argue that merger reduces risk, improves capitalization, diversifies outside Canada. 

Merger with MOZ. Could argue that merger reduces risk, improves capitalization, diversifies outside Canada. 

Oil is the safest of all the resource categories. Here are 2 names that will let you sleep at night.

Big fan of CNQ: best in class in execution, quality assets, aristocrat in dividend growth. 

TOU doesn't give the upfront, regular dividend, but has been generous with special dividends. Capable of delivering in high single-digit range in terms of total yield.

Oil is the safest of all the resource categories. Here are 2 names that will let you sleep at night.

Big fan of CNQ: best in class in execution, quality assets, aristocrat in dividend growth. 

TOU doesn't give the upfront, regular dividend, but has been generous with special dividends. Capable of delivering in high single-digit range in terms of total yield.

Never a good sign when your stock issue gets hung up. Timing wasn't ideal, with weaker sentiment on oil below $80. New concerns about acquisition binges. Special dividend was a "teaser". On the sidelines, due to short-term indigestion on the acquisition. May need dispositions to bring debt back down.

High growth, about 40% production growth in 2023. Great ROC potential. Very well run. CEO change by year's end. Lots of running room. Good scalability. Expects a takeover in 12-18 months. Yields around 5%.

Symptom of the space. Very good executors, diversified asset base. Trades at a premium, so the bloom comes off when sentiment turns. Attractive yield around 4%, that's why he owns it. Recent acquisition will be additive by 2025.