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President at Sprung Investment Management
Member since: Oct '00 · 4150 Opinions
China has significant economic problems--real estate, shadow banking and weak demographics--and no longer makes it an attractive place to invest. Inflation will hold up higher than people expect, and this will impact interest-sensitive stocks as well as bonds. There are are also geopolitical concerns in the Ukraine and Middle East, which will benefit only a few industries. Massive defence spending will leave little for everything else. He expects 2024 to be very choppy and we've seen this so far this year. We were living in la-la land with lower interest rates, but now we will see normalization with higher rates for longer.
No, though it's cheap vs. the other banks. In this market, having a good dividend yield of 5.6% is worth a lot. If interest rates fall, the banks will get squeezed in their net interest margin. There are concerns over outstanding loans. But overall, the banks look attractive and CIBC is especially cheap. He likes Royal too.
It's popped slightly recently. They just did a deal in which they released $1.2 billion of free capital--this finally woke up people that MFC is a little undervalued. It still is at 8x PE with a price-to-book of 1.3x. Under this CEO in recent years, they've been streamlining operations to be more efficient and adding growth. This has been a top pick of his many times.
A problematic stock. They were behind on debt payments, but have worked things out with creditors. As one of the last busmakers in North America, they will benefit from future bus orders from cities. It has risen from recent (extreme) lows, due to settling financing problems. A riskier-than-normal stock. If sales tick up, shares could leap by multiples, but who knows when?
The rails trade in tandem. With CP buying Kansas City, CP now competes head-to-head with CNR which used to have more of a north-south network. He isn't jumping into these stocks, because of a possible recession later this year. If you're a long, long-term holder, holding rails isn't bad, but he wouldn't but them now.
The rails trade in tandem. With CP buying Kansas City, CP now competes head-to-head with CNR which used to have more of a north-south network. He isn't jumping into these stocks, because of a possible recession later this year. If you're a long, long-term holder, holding rails isn't bad, but he wouldn't but them now.
Stick with it. The banks offer stability and pretty good value. RY has regained its premium valuation. Their yield is still above 4%. They remain the top bank in Canada and are prominent internationally. The big question with the banks is what will happen with the loan books. All the banks have made aggressive moves in loan loss provisions, though.