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TSE:CPG
Solid execution last quarter. Cashflows beat by 4%. Lower valuation of 3.0x than peers at 3.9x. More indebted balance sheet, but it doesn't matter with oil prices where they are. Pretty nice production and EPS growth. Energy is under owned, and oil price is being manipulated higher, so this one can do well.
Very inexpensive on a fundamental basis.
Paying down debt, re-structuring assets.
Returning cash to shareholders.
Trading at 3x operating cash flow @ current strip price.
Believes oil prices heading higher.
Financial markets weighing on price of oil - but will pass.
Cheap valuation + dividends will slowly provide value over the years.
CPG is not our favourite, but is certainly cheap and offers a good dividend and growth potential. The balance sheet is in much stronger shape than prior cycles, and it is one of the few in the sector expected to grow this year (with acquisitions offsetting lower pricing). Special dividends (small) will likely continue. We think it would be fine to own.
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This will do well even if WTI oil is at $70. Don't need $80 or $90. Boasts 3-4x operating cash flow and a 15% free cash flow yield. The sector is cheap. Oil prices can go grow higher. CPG stopped growing for the sake of growing, but in recent years has been paying down debt and buying back shares. Did a major acquisition and consolidating their most productive assets.
(Analysts’ price target is $13.57)
Overhang was always inventory depth, but they've been acquiring. Now they have 15+ years of Tier-1 quality inventory. At 25%, second-highest free cashflow yield of companies he follows. Yield is 3.69%.
(Analysts’ price target is $13.90)