Summer Sale
50% off Premium Yearly
Opinions Greg Newman
Crescent Point Energy CorpCPG.TOBUYAug 16, 2023
Greg NewmanStock price when the opinion was issued
As of May 14, 2024. Market Open.
You might be interested:
Hammerhead was a good deal, horrific timing with oil falling overnight. Deal is 11% accretive on free cashflow per share, extended premium inventory life from 15 years to 20. He sees 75% potential upside at $80 oil. Yield is 4.21%.
He's pro-M&A, if it allows a company to pay shareholders more. CEO promised him last week that the company "is done" with M&A.
Eric Nuttall;fill-opacity:1;'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M31%2018.6001V30H8V18.6001L14.1334%2022.4334L19.4999%2014L24.8669%2022.4334L31%2018.6001Z'%20fill='%23EE5432'%20style='fill:%23EE5432;fill:color(display-p3%200.9340%200.3310%200.1956);fill-opacity:1;'/%3e%3c/svg%3e){kind=small}
Premium contentOur PAST TOP PICK with CPG has triggered its stop at $9.50. To remain disciplined, we recommend covering the position at this time. This will result in a net investment loss of 1%, when combined with our previous recommendations.
Never a good sign when your stock issue gets hung up. Timing wasn't ideal, with weaker sentiment on oil below $80. New concerns about acquisition binges. Special dividend was a "teaser". On the sidelines, due to short-term indigestion on the acquisition. May need dispositions to bring debt back down.
Expecting 100% upside at current share price. Transitioned from SE Saskatchewan to Montney play in BC (decades of inventory). Largest active shareholder in company. Trading under 3x cash flow given $80 oil price. New frac technique allowing for large increase of production from oil wells. Expecting ~$21 share price.
Eric NuttallPremium contentWith quarterly reported cash reserves growing, while debt is retired and stock bought back, we again reiterate CPG as a TOP PICK. The company recently announced it is selling its N. Dakota assets for $675 million and plans to spend over $1 billion in capital projects next year. We continue to recommend a stop at $9.50, looking to achieve $14 -- upside potential over 24%. Yield 3.2%
(Analysts’ price target is $14.25)
Looks really good for the small- to mid-cap energy space in Canada. At 2.4x, cheaper than peers at 3.4x. Decent dividend, some solid execution. Cashflow rising. Production growth profile of 7%. Investable. But do you want to buy now with a crowded trade and oil prices higher than they'll be in future?
Successfully transitioned into long reserve life company (Duvernay & Montney).
Largest oil wells in Canada.
Returning 60% of free cash flow yield to investors.
~15 years of high quality inventory.
Expecting 100% upside at current share price.
Dividend yield ~3% and will also issue special dividends.
Eric NuttallPremium content
Solid execution last quarter. Cashflows beat by 4%. Lower valuation of 3.0x than peers at 3.9x. More indebted balance sheet, but it doesn't matter with oil prices where they are. Pretty nice production and EPS growth. Energy is under owned, and oil price is being manipulated higher, so this one can do well.