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Chairman at J. Zechner & Assoc
Member since: Jan '01 · 3782 Opinions
Believes markets are almost too bullish right now. Appears US Fed is pivoting towards dovish economic policy. Stocks are not cheap, but performance has been great for investors. Importance of investing in tech becoming more prevalent with A.I. growth. Generating growth in profits will be important for tech to demonstrate. Geopolitical risk always something to be aware of, but not investing based on speculation of further conflict.
The rally last week was a big move, but we were pretty oversold. September and October were miserable, but we've seen this before where everybody is down, then we get a surprise bounce. A lot of last week was probably short covering. The tailwind we needed was a break in rates and that's what we got last week. The markets expects a traditional Q4 rally. The US is seeing the rally continue, but Canada is a different story where the cyclicals are struggling, which is logical given the economic outlook. The economy is heading to a recession and Canada will happen before the US. Some of the bad news is already built into stocks like CargoJet. Also, he feels that rates have peaked and rates have been overdone. SPending has lasted longer than expected given the savings from Covid, but that savings is being depleted. There are headwinds out there and a time for caution. He's cautious, neutral.
The travel business enjoyed the revenge travel bounce, which is wearing off a bit. The managed Covid well by shifting to cargo shipping. But business travel will never return to pre-Covid levels. That said, this remains a good business, judging by their last report. A good long-term story. Buy on further weakness, not now. Economic slowdowns are a caveat, though.