First Quantum Minerals (FM.TO)

He hasn't owned mining companies in a very long time. Shocking to see what's happened to FM with that mine, as it's a great asset. Shows how risky it is to invest in foreign countries outside NA. 

ABX knows how to allocate capital very well. If he were interested in a mining company, this would be the one, as the CEO certainly knows what to do. Eventually, the FM mine has to be up and running. If ABX can run it properly, there's a lot of value that can be created.

Small companies can't exist anymore in this new age of mining, oil/gas. We're going to see a lot of M&A.

Too risky for investors. Panama has lots of geopolitical risk. Better options for copper investors. Unsure whether company will survive without operations in Panama. 

We think the market has effectively now written off the mine, so any good news at all would have an amplified positive effect on the stock. But we doubt an agreement is going to be reached. FM is likely going to breach some debt covenants, but it is not in creditors' interest to force anything on the company. It has other assets, and has lots of short term liquidity. We would not expect bankruptcy here, though financial risks have indeed increased, and creditors can be difficult at times. There is still a question of environmental costs in Panama, and whether FM can capture any damages from the government. Fair value is likely $8 to $12, assuming no other negative news. That being said, the mine accounted for about 5% of world copper production. Copper potential goes into a global supply deficit, from a surplus, with any economic strength. Thus, FM's other assets might see some benefit even from its disaster in Panama. 
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There comes a downside point when you have to decide whether to sell it all or, if your conviction is still there, to double up. No sense sitting around if your viewpoint's changed or if you have a higher conviction. Constitutional challenges in the courts in Panama, winding down operations, so it's quite a material issue.

Move on to something with more visibility that lets you sleep at night. Why fight this uphill battle? This is not a technical mining issue. Company can't control the social, political, or judicial outcomes.

Too much political uncertainty to justify investment. Good for tax loss sellers. Too risky to justify investment. 

Steer clear, despite dramatic drop. Lots of news yet to unfold. You don't know what you're getting. Panama mine represents 60% of company's value. Look for mining in a friendlier jurisdiction.

Really likes copper stocks for this year, poised to perform. Took out November-December highs. Next target is June 2022 highs, around $40-41. Based, took a leg higher, consolidated, broke out.

Copper is in such tight supply. It's needed for the green revolution and de-carbonization. New 20-year agreement resolves a lot of recent issues and drama. Reasonable 14.6x 2024 for an estimated 38% EPS growth rate. If we don't have a soft landing, this name will misfire. When, not if, we have a soft landing, this name will really participate. More of a satellite holding, not core. Yield is 0.79%.