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Chief Investment Officer at First Avenue Investment Counsel
Member since: Aug '16 · 1491 Opinions
Stock is not a household name, but Rexall is, which MCK just bought. Core business is wholesale drug distribution in US. Negotiates bulk drug purchases and distributes them. Low margin, but high inventory turnover, so high ROE. Stable, non-cyclical. In oligopoly with 2 others and a combined 90% market share. Non-discretionary.
Chart looks nice, undemanding multiple of 15.5x earnings. Has grown at 10% compound rate over the last decade, well positioned to continue this. Yield is 0.5%.
Uber now occupies the same mind space that google does, using it as a verb. Speaks to it becoming synonymous with ride-sharing. 131M monthly active users. Dominant and scalable platform. Strong network effect in that the more drivers and deliverers it has, the more valuable the network to both parties.
Turned a corner financially, expected to be in the black this year. Profits expected to triple next year and continue growing dynamically as far out as 2025. Added to S&P 500, should do well. Looks expensive, but will grow into its valuation, with an outlook of sub-30x. No dividend.
Wording has been very careful. At the meeting last week, we got the clearest sign yet that the last rate hike is in, and that the next move is down and almost certainly in 2024. Only issue left to debate is whether the cut comes earlier or later in the year than markets are expecting.
AI and big data. Autonomous vehicles. Infrastructure. Green energy. A number of themes have secular tailwinds, which are especially important when facing a macro environment with medium-term growth headwinds. More so in Canada than in the US, where he can envision the fabled "soft landing".
Be on the lookout for companies that are innovative and "changing everything".
Cut loose earlier this year, amidst a difficult growth environment. Almost-impossible comparison to last year's profits from supply-chain shortages. 2023 US manufacturing recession led to a freight recession. Valuation is sub-16x earnings, in line with 10-year average. Quality compounder, consolidator in the industry. Compounded total shareholder return of 23% over the last decade. Comfortable buying here. Expects good 2024 earnings.
Dominates Search, and with "pull" advertising (whereas META does "push" ads). Huge market share and growing. Now used as a verb, "to google". Some cyclicality. Taking share from traditional ads forms will continue. Cloud is growing nicely. AI will be additive, making most of its products more valuable. Billions spent on R&D "Other Bets", and at least some of these should pay off handsomely.
A leader. Dominant position in US. Buy on any day "that ends in 'y'". Always seems expensive if you look at the high 30s PE ratio. Chart looks stretched. Look for a pullback, perhaps when December seasonality subsides early in the new year. Membership rate increases every couple of years creates earnings power, as there are few good substitutes.
About as good as it gets on long-term buy and hold.
Biggest and best-of-breed in the category. Likes business model for its exposure to commodity price and upside optionality to more reserve and resource discovery. Insulates shareholders from operating and capital cost overruns endemic to mining. Well diversified by geography and operator. Bit of non-gold commodity exposure.
(Analysts’ price target is $200.67)Timely right now. Price has pulled back a lot since the summer, because biggest royalty interest is in Panama, operated by FM. That mine accounts for about 22% of Franco's NAV, and market's shaved about 30% off shares, which gives a good margin of safety. Good entry opportunity. Believes arbitration will prevail in its favour, which is what happens historically. Yield is 1.2%.