Stockchase Opinions

Christopher BlumasBlackstone Group LPBXCOMMENTSep 17, 2019

They converted from an LP to a corporation which attracted a different shareholder base (index funds). This shift spiked their valuation. He owns BAM instead, which shares the same drivers as BX: low yields, pension plans and institutional investors. These stocks are essentially synthetic bonds with assets. Trades at 15x forward distributed earnings. BX is a well-run company in a shareholder-friendly space.
$53.52

Stock price when the opinion was issued

$115.35

As of Jun 05, 2026. Market Open.

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PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Dec 14/23, Up 52%)

Excellent management team very strong at capital allocation. Focus on real estate created difficulties during higher interest rates. As rates stabilize, business will perform well. Will continue to own shares. 

BUY

Is up 20% in the past month. Private equity companies are benefitting huge from lower interest rates with the core business doing leveraged buyouts.  BX was down because of its exposure to real estate, but that's no longer a problem as interest rates have peaked.

BUY ON WEAKNESS
1-year high, sell?

Not negative on it. Well run. $1T of assets employed in the private markets. Will benefit from lower interest rates, could see positive moves off that. Not inexpensive. Watch, try to enter at a lower level.

DON'T BUY

Models $70 or 20% downside, but he thinks it will hit $43. The air is coming out of the balloon.

DON'T BUY

High real estate percentage in its portfolio. Likes the private equity space. Worried about commercial real estate amid higher interest rates, but not likely to take down the company. He owns KKR instead.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Aug 10/22, Down 12%)

Still holds in income growth portfolio.
Was not expecting higher interest rates which has put pressure on company.
AUM still growing - $40 billion new cash in free funds to invest.
Expecting further growth going forward. 

TOP PICK

Alternative assets are dominated by a few companies that have tremendous scale. Has really diversified beyond private equity. Caught up in market's concerns about real estate, but they're much less exposed than BN. Office represents just 2% of US real estate portfolio. 

Likely a difficult 6-18 months, but macro is close to rates peaking. Over $190B of dry powder. Best alt asset manager in the world. Can easily achieve over 15% growth in fee-related earnings over time. Yield is 3.52%. 

(Analysts’ price target is $102.22)
BUY

Trades at 15x PE as rates could hold for the rest of the year. Private equity companies do better when rates hold. Their portfolio and management are excellent.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick May 06/22, Down 13%)

Big exposure to real estate, but there are 2 sides to the coin. They are in the midst of it with the assets they already own, but these are fund-raising machines. Has about $90B in dry capital, which can be deployed in a depressed market.

DON'T BUY
Blackstone vs. Blackrock, BX vs. BLK Blackrock is more volatile because they are far more exposed to the public market whereas Blackstone is more of a private equity player and real estate. This year, the public side is more volatile. Blackstone is more stable long term.
BUY
Largest private equity company in the world. Huge buying power. In the US, pension plans are restricted from participating in private equity, so need alternative asset classes to invest in. Interest rates won't be a problem. Difficulty harvesting gains by bringing assets public. Sweet spot of buying assets cheap. Volatile.
COMMENT
BAM vs. Blackstone Blackstone is more into private equity than BAM, which is more diverse. For this reason she still prefers BAM, though both are well managed. Also, the USD has been strong, so that favours USD-heavy Blackstone. Conversely, a weakening USD will impact Blackstone.
TOP PICK
One of the most successful private equity firms. Believes current share price is presenting good buying opportunity. Strong dividend rate. Good long term investment (3-5 years).
DON'T BUY
Part of its business is managing real estate, and that's going to be tough with rising rates. The other part is private equity, which uses debt to finance, and this is also interest sensitive. Technicals show weakening RSI since October, and has not picked up since the market bottom. Fundamentally, business model is challenged. Better places to be.
TOP PICK
Biggest private equity company in the world. Now's a great time to get in. Q2 results for fee-related earnings and assets under management were staggering. Brand name drives investor interest. Insulated from higher interest rates, as they can raise prices on short-duration assets. Revenue doubled over last 5 years. Variable yield of 4.76% has grown strongly historically. (Analysts’ price target is $123.45)