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Partner and Portfolio Manager at Harris Douglas Asset Management
Member since: Feb '04 · 3667 Opinions
Lots of issues that can happen, as there are every year. Generally, we should see a reasonable up year next year, especially in Canada. Interest rates are at peak, or will remain stable, and may go down in the second half of the year.
Canada has a far more interest-sensitive market, and banks and utilities should do better because of that. That's what's held back the TSX for the last little while.
A lot of things that pushed markets up over the last year will still be there. US interest rates are in that period of peaking. Inflation will come down. Rates won't be cut in March or April. Chance that Fed will move cutting of rates into the second half of the year, and that's a smart move. Don't need to push rates down until inflation is at the level they want. If they cut rates too quickly, risk that they may have to push rates up again if inflation takes off. Wise to wait until inflation gets to the 2% they want and then lower rates.
Lower rates on the short end will be good for the stock market, funding, and IPOs.
Yes, that's why banks and utilities in Canada will do well. Those kinds of stocks will do well around the world. If you own these types of companies, not only will you get the dividend that you've been getting all along, but you'll get some capital gain that you haven't been getting in the last little while.
Europe tends to have more dividend-paying companies, whereas the US tends to be more about growth. It's more about the stability of rates, rather than rates coming down, and they should all do better.
If you're a long-term investor, you have to keep your money in the stock market. Very hard to get out and then get back in again. If you have the long-term view that stocks grow your wealth, then you have to put your money to work on an ongoing basis.
Makeup of the S&P 500 is dramatically different than 20 years ago. More tech companies now, no longer dominated by lower-PE industrial companies as before. So you can't sit back and wait for that 20x PE.
You look for really good companies that you like, put them in your portfolio, and hold for the long term. Stick to this strategy, and you'll always do well. Could also dollar-cost-average into an ETF on an ongoing basis.
Some tenants have pulled out of its big Toronto project, The Well. Its smaller spaces have hurt them, as people can work from home just as easily. Interest rates hurt real estate. Good company, lots of really interesting, character-rich properties. Owning something like this should do well for you in a better interest rate environment.
Issue is not a lot of growth in last few quarters. Wonderful balance sheet, buying back shares. High-margin services are growing, as are the wearables. Where does the next product that's going to change the world come from? That's what people are waiting for. A lot of the business are driven off the iPhone, and the computer side has done poorly. Still likes it, it will come through.