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CaterpillarCATCOMMENTJun 14, 2016Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 18, 2026. Market Open.
They were viewed as a play on China. Given China's collapse, CAT stock should have tanked and shorters piled into this. But the CEO countered that CAT is more levered to data centres, which helped to sway the street. Still trades at 13x PE. Was up 11% in Q3. CAT has more room to run.
Just reported a strong earnings beat and their quarter defied concerns of a global slowdown. Shares rallied to an all-time high. CAT makes machines to non-residential construction, mining, oil/gas and data centre construction--all sectors doing well. Also, Washington is creating tons of jobs in infrastructure. CAT's sell-off was unwarranted in the first place. The CEO is making CAT less cyclical, and he foresaw the weakness in China.
They diversified away from China. CAT will benefit from federal infrastructure spending that will boost their orders. Also, when investors feel that US-China relationships are improving, they buy CAT. He sold some shares today. Has rallied since last May. Is now seeing money from the Infrastructure Bill of late 2021. Trades at 13x PE 2023.
Rallied last Friday. The CEO has diversified the services offered, but shares have slumped. Wall Street views it as an old-fashioned cyclical stock, which is wrong. He expects a lot of orders for infrastructure projects by next year. Shares have bumped because of China's stimulus plans, but China represents only 5% of CAT's business.
When you look at a collapse in an asset class, such as energy in the last 18 months, he has never seen where it bottoms and turns around, and becomes a new leader right away. We have had a great rally in energy and there is some risk that as we get back the cost of production, new production will come on. This company had a tremendous rally since February, but is looking a lot like the energy and metals sectors, and there is some risk that it runs into resistance here and could roll over.