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TSE:CCO
Uranium prices have struggled since the Japan earthquake. Another overhang is the CRA issue. Hang onto this. It's had a nice move off the bottom. Cameco is short of uranium this year, so they have to buy uranium this year. Global buyers have bought enough uranium, so we've hit a bottom in uranium prices. He expects a bounce...as well as volatility.
Uraniam prices have struggled since the Japan earthquakes. Another overhang for Cameco is their CRA issue. Hang onto this. It's had a nice move off the bottom. Cameco is short of uranium this year, so they have to buy uranium this year. But buyers have bought enough uranium, so there's an excess on the market. We've hit a bottom in uranium prices, so he expects a bounce...as well as volatility.
Has looked at this so many times in the last decade. The theme is that they are a low-cost producer of uranium. People want to get away from oil and gas, so nuclear power seems to have some long-term future. Every time he sees an analyst report, uranium prices are going to go up in 2 years time, and this has been going on for decades. It never seems to happen. The company is dealing with a CRA issue on the tax side as well, but it would be manageable.
Uranium really is the bloodied factory. You have the environmental approach. It’s not easy, and yet is one of the world's greatest highest-grade producers. They've cut production which has helped a bit, but it doesn't help forever. It’s going to stay alive, but shouldn't be your favourite at the moment.
The price of uranium has been pretty positive, and the stock has sort of caught up with that. It had a washout bottom back in October, followed by a move above its resistance. The last move was pretty big, so it may want to come back and test at around $11.95. Indicators are turning up and everything is positive about it. A tough call, because it is so volatile.
The long-term trend has been down until recently, when the stock went from around $10.50 to almost $12. The company reduced the amount of yearly production and the price of uranium in the last 2 weeks has gone up 15%. Seasonality is positive from about November through until May. Technicals have changed dramatically during the last 3 weeks. If you own, stick with it or buy on weakness.
If you look at the commodity sector, it has started to get a bit of a bounce. Is the world going to be able to get off nuclear energy? The balance sheet is okay on this. If you think about electric cars and the increasing demand for electricity, there are countries that do not have the capability of generating their own electricity. The longer-term story is good, but the money and this company could be dead for a couple of years.
He doesn't like to bottom fish or to average down. The one thing that is quite positive on the chart is that there was a pretty big downside in 2016 to around $10, which gives you a good place to hang your hat. You also have to allow for about a 3% penetration. From a risk/reward perspective, this is a pretty good area. Put a Stop in just below $10.
The dividend will not likely be cut again. You have to wait until Uranium prices rise and that would be good for this stock but they would not rush to increase the old dividend level. The dividend is almost irrelevant.