Canadian Pacific Rail (CP.TO)

Grains have been a real pain lately, however a lot of it is in storage and there has been a very large grain crop, so he expects it will pick up later. Autos could be a bit of a risk over the next few years should North American production turn down. Intermodal volumes have fluctuated, depending on the quarter and depending on the rail. The nice thing about rails is that time is on your side. They are the more efficient way to move things. Over time, there is a real growth algorithm. Very good businesses over the long-term.

You are at your limit in terms of price (EBV+6), and his model price of $198. But long term it looks pretty good. By next year EBV+6 will be $256. There is not an American railroad he likes.

Has a cash ROE of about 45%, and this divided by the PE is about 3.5%, which is healthy and above the level of 2 that he likes to see. With consistent ROE generators, you want to hold them. However, at some point we are going to have another recession, and this will be a bit challenged, at which point it would be a good time to add to your holdings.

Hunter Harrison brought in a team, and they have the same DNA that Hunter has, so things are going to be just fine when he retires. If we see any uptick globally, and we start to see freight traffic growth globally, you are going to see this and some of the other rails recover pretty well.

Bill Ackman owns a 6.7% stake in the company, worth about $1.9 billion Canadian, and is selling his shares. No one should react to something like this. If you are in the stock because he is, then it is time to get out. Commodity volumes in Canada are not great. This is a decent company and he would not Sell because one guy is in it. You are going to have to wait for the Canadian economy to fully recover to make any money. But it is a very well-run company.

(Market Call Minute.) Freight rate volumes are down 8% year-over-year, so you want to be careful.

Canadian National (CNR-T) or Canadian Pacific (CP-T)? He owns CNR and prefers it, as it has less commodity exposure and more cross-border north/south from Mexico. The whole transportation division has been weak lately, but likes it as a long-term investment. You don’t have to run out and buy the rails at this time.

Canadian National (CNR-T) or Canadian Pacific (CP-T)? He really likes the rails. He hasn’t followed this one too closely, so Canadian National would be his choice.

North American rails suffered from 2 things. Overall economic activity has been weaker and commodity volumes, specifically this rail, has been a lot lower. Coal has been abysmal and oil and gas has been down as well. Despite all this, it is going to grow earnings 10% this year with no top line growth, a combination of really good operational management and cost cutting and share buybacks. Feels earnings growth rate will be in a double digits next year.

(Market Call Minute.) Likes the rails, but prefers Canadian National (CNR-T). However, this one is fine.

This went through a difficult time in 2014-2015, and technically went into a downward trend. Currently it is forming a bit of a base. Seasonally the stock has a history of moving higher from late January through to the beginning of May of each year. The problem is that this stock has double seasonality. After May the stock tends to go down. We have passed the period of seasonality, so now is the time to take some profits.

Canadian National (CNR-T) or Canadian Pacific (CP-T)? Looking at the consensus projections, this is probably more attractive, but thinks they have more work to do in getting their house in order. (See Top Picks.)

This got a little rich when they were transporting tons and tons of coal and oil. Shipments of coal have come back down dramatically, but the valuation has also come down. Earnings continue to stay flat and pick up a little. We are now back to about 15X next year’s earnings, which is pretty reasonable for this rail.

Generally, buybacks are good for shareholders because they reduce shares outstanding. He would rather have a higher dividend, which would do better in this kind of a market environment.

A solid, solid company. Probably the best performing rail in the last 3 years. Over the last 20 years, rails have been phenomenal performers. They are good, solid, long term businesses, and he would never argue with a client owning these. In the short term, they are under a bit of pressure. Their most profitable business is hauling commodities which is under pressure. He is not in a big hurry to buy these because he thinks they continue to be a bit weak in the short term.