The Monthly Gems by Allan TongCiscoCSCOTOP PICKDec 02, 2022

Transitioning from router hardware to software and services, as revenues are recurring with higher margins. A pass, as current environment will impact companies' capital spending. Hardware still majority of its business. New acquisition may make revenue less cyclical.

A few weeks ago, it gave disappointing guidance, so shares declined. Now that the reset is done, shares are rebounding with nice momentum. This remains a steady-eddy dividend payer.

It's over its skiis, overpaying for cybersecurity assets, so he sold it. It's a great name, but he see better earnings elsewhere in tech.

Wait two quarters before this shows decent growth, though some investors may not wait that long.

It had a bad week last week but is ready to recover.

CSCO is seeing similar industry issues that other companies are seeing which essentially has been a buildup of product at end customers who are now focusing on deployment in the short-term as opposed to buying new product, alongside some general macro pressures.  It is not a name that excites us a whole lot and has been appearing to lose market share to competitors over the years. With that said, as a large, slower growth company trading at 12X forward earnings and with a dividend, it might not be our 'favourite' name out there but hard for us to be overly critical of it at these levels as well. It has underperformed, and the recent earnings miss will likely keep it quiet for at least a couple of quarters. We would thus consider it OK but not good enough to add to at this time. 
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Reported today and shares slumped after hours. They reported solid results, but guidance was not pretty for the current quarter and full year, $12.6-12.8 billion in revenue vs. the expected $14.2 billion forecast. But there's a lot of developments in the pipeline for 2024.

Sideways chart which has a history of wide swings. It could now roll over, but is breaking above old highs. Tough to call this. It could continue breaking out. If it breaks above $55 and holds, then sell.

Never again reached its highs of 2000. Well known, mature. Fundamentals, more certainty, not a huge increase in mere hope of some of the pandemic stocks. There may be uncertainty about the future, but it's positive uncertainty.

Has owned for many years, and continues to buy. 
Trading at 14x earnings.
No debt, dividend very strong.
Growth consistent with share buybacks occurring.
Transitioning into services style business which creates recurring revenue. 

IT hardware. Lots of people are attracted to the dividend. Pretty attractive valuation. He prefers the software side, perhaps MSFT, GOOG, or CSU. Software is better at compounding capital.

Last earnings beat on top and bottom, extended guidance. 12-month price target of $60.50, decent runway. Hardware infrastructure. Yield is 3.07%.

Still likes it. He model $73.15 and further upside. If there's deflation in the US, this will fall to $39. Pays a 3.2% yield.