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Curated by Michael O'Reilly since 2020
1550+ opinions with 4.81 rating (one of the best performing expert)


Stock Opinions by Chris Blumas

COMMENT
Too much optimism of rate cuts soon?

Seems to be. Today's Fed rate announcement is a bit different from the others. Expectation is they'll hold rates, but they'll also be releasing the dot plot, a survey of roughly 20 people who have a say on rates. We'll get a sense of their expectations of interest rates over the next 3 years. 

They release the dot plot 4 times a year. The September one clearly showed a declining interest rate environment. There's less interest in the rate announcement itself than there is in the dot plot, which will be quite telling.

COMMENT
Timing the market.

It's the hardest thing for investors. You hear negative things such as a potential recession, but then look at what happened to the markets in November. Putting money in and then taking money out doesn't work. Absolute biggest mistake investors make. 

You have to get in at good prices, and then you have to stay. Who'd have thought November would be so positive, but that's why you have to stay invested. Things can change quickly.

HOLD
Take WSP profits and buy STN?

Valuations are roughly comparable, and rich. WSP is bigger and more global. If you own WSP, don't sell, let it keep working. Access to capital for WSP is favourable. 

Return on STN has been better this year, but that's because it was undervalued coming in. A switch wouldn't be that helpful.

HOLD
Take WSP profits and buy STN?

Valuations are roughly comparable, and rich. WSP is bigger and more global. If you own WSP, don't sell, let it keep working. Access to capital for WSP is favourable. 

Return on STN has been better this year, but that's because it was undervalued coming in. A switch wouldn't be that helpful.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Wonderful business. Very well run, global. Excellent job with the difficult task of making convenience stores profitable. Valuation of 17x is above his buy price. Long growth runway. Add on pullback.

DON'T BUY

Spun out from Telus. Call centres and support centres for other businesses. No competitive moat, business economics not phenomenal. Avoid.

COMMENT
Investing strategy.

He'd rather buy a great business at a reasonable price, than a marginal business at a great price.

BUY

Laggard of peers, mainly due to international exposure. EM business was challenged, but he likes that unique footprint. Likely to be more focused going forward. Inexpensive, less than 10x earnings, which takes care of some uncertainties. Yield north of 7%. 

Before you buy, look at the slides that come out of Investor Day today, but he'd be comfortable buying today.

COMMENT
Canadian banks.

Sentiment is very negative, so valuations are depressed, and that makes him constructive on the sector. With all the technology, scale is so important in being profitable. Being only 8-10% market share in some markets is not profitable enough for a bank, something would need to change.

DON'T BUY

He holds shares from the CSU spinoff, but he hasn't bought any more. CSU has a unique business model, and you can't just easily replicate that in the spinoffs. He's more inclined to stay with CSU.

DON'T BUY

He holds shares from the CSU spinoff, but he hasn't bought any more. CSU has a unique business model, and you can't just easily replicate that in the spinoffs. He's more inclined to stay with CSU.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Unique business model that you can't easily replicate in the spinoffs. Valuation a bit rich at over 30x cashflow. Eventually, will be some volatility and you'll get your change to buy more. Exceptionally high growth despite its size. One of the best compounders ever created, not just in Canada but globally.

DON'T BUY

More of a niche, smaller, private equity player that gets left out of transactions. Could narrow discount to NAV, say, by using excess cash to buy back shares. But that would reduce ability to do deals. Likely to continue to trade at a discount. Instead, look at BN.

BUY

Many levers to pull to capitalize on value. Strong platform for growth.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Quality manufacturer. Well run. Generates really good ROC and free cashflow. Hangup right now is related to uncertainty on the economy. Potential NA recession not good for auto sales. Good name in the space.

Showing 1 to 15 of 582 entries