Summer Sale
50% off Premium Yearly
Opinions Stockchase Insights
Cenovus EnergyCVE.TOBUYFeb 20, 2023
Stockchase InsightsStock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 19, 2026. Market Open.
You might be interested:
Excellent company that is top holding in portfolio. Excellent management team with executing. Believes stock buybacks will commence within next month or two. Between 75%-100% free cash flow will be dedicated to return of capital. Excellent assets in oil sands and refineries. Will continue to hold and buy more.
Mike VinokurWe do not think Trans Mountain will influence values much. Prices, with global influences, will continue to have a bigger impact. The stock is cheap at 8X earnings and offers a decent, growing dividend. It is one of the few in the sector expected to see per-share growth in '24, in the 20% or so range. Debt is down to 1X cash flow and the share count continues to decline. 3Q results were strong, with good growth and lower debt, though refining margins remain a possible negative variable. Overall, though, it looks fine to us.
Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free
Debt drawdown taking longer than thought due to weaker oil. Other issues have been fixed. Waiting to hit $4B of debt, and he sees it happening in Q2. Shareholders should be getting 100% of free cashflow early next year. Sees 40-80% upside. 35 years of inventory. Solid, steady CEO. High-quality reservoirs. Yield is 2.34%.
(Analysts’ price target is $33.19)
Eric Nuttall;fill-opacity:1;'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M31%2018.6001V30H8V18.6001L14.1334%2022.4334L19.4999%2014L24.8669%2022.4334L31%2018.6001Z'%20fill='%23EE5432'%20style='fill:%23EE5432;fill:color(display-p3%200.9340%200.3310%200.1956);fill-opacity:1;'/%3e%3c/svg%3e){kind=small}
Premium contentOur PAST TOP PICK with CVE has triggered its stop at $24. To remain disciplined, we recommend covering the position at this time. This will result in a net investment gain of 15%, when combined with our previous recommendations.
Management team assuring production/refinery issues not a concern. Expecting company to hit $4 billion debt target in January 2024. At least 30 years of long dated inventory. Not expecting M&A anytime soon. Trading around ~4x free cash flow at $80 oil. Expecting ~$38 share price at $80 oil. Will continue to own shares at 11% of fund.
Eric NuttallPremium content
Remains bullish on oil prices ($85-$100).
Meaningful leverage to $90 oil price.
January 2024 will see 100% return of capital to shareholders.
Currently trading at 17% to cash flow.
Expecting 50% upside at current oil price.
Current share price undervalued.
Eric NuttallPremium content2027 bond issue specifically.
Good if economy enters into a recession.
Expecting short terms rates to go down.
~6% yield is very safe.
Energy space very strong.
Bill Harris, CFARemains very bullish on oil, so he's looking for leverage to that call. Material discount to peers. Quickly getting to the threshold of paying investors 100% of free cashflow. 17% free cashflow yield at current oil price, 22% at $100 oil. Bullet-proof balance sheet. Yield is 2.19%.
(Analysts’ price target is $29.54)Eric Nuttall
CVE’s recent quarter result was solid given the tailwind of high oil prices, and shares are now trading at 7.5x times' Forward P/E.
In the 4Q, CVE’s revenue grew 2% to $14B, missing estimates of $14.4B and EPS was $0.29 also missing the estimate of $0.61.
The balance sheet is strong, with long-term debt (excluding leases) of $8.7B, significantly reduced compared to $12B last year.
Total debt is around 1.2x times trailing twelve-month free funds flow (FFF) of $7.3B, and free cash flow grew nicely around 55% compared to $4.7B last year.
Based on consensus estimates, sales are expected to decline by 12%, while EPS is expected to decline by 5% in 2023.
CVE also announced a CEO transition, as the COO will now be in charge, and the old CEO would be the executive chair, we don’t think this would change the company’s fundamentals much in the near term.
The company has been actively repurchasing shares over the last two years and raising dividends as a result of operational tailwinds from high oil prices.
However, going forward the company’s performance will largely depend on oil prices.
It is priced well and has good potential, depending on what commodity prices do.
Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free