Chevron Texaco (CVX)

We need to concern ourselves with oil. The stock itself looks good. Chart shows a big volume and a big drop. He would be a seller at this point. The first number you have to worry about is a psychological one of $100.

Oil prices in the US kind of move opposite to the US$, giving you a kind of offset. Oil exposure in Canada moves truer to what oil prices actually are doing. This gives US companies less volatility. The dividend is this company’s #1 priority. They are looking more at divesting assets as opposed to buying opportunities, and are more focused on short cycle projects.

A very high quality integrated company. She has always chosen to stay in Canada for energy. This is a very large diversified name, and will be able to withstand the downturn. When times are difficult, they can probably scoop up assets at distressed prices.

He likes integrateds. The low is higher than in 2009. He would favour it. The volume has stopped the downtrend and it should start to rally.

The midstream and downstream operations have been very good. The upstream business has been very challenged. The big guys should continue to well. He prefers SU-T, however, who have no decline rate.

Good quality company. This makes a lot of sense if you want oil/gas exposure. She doesn’t have much exposure to the mega type companies, because the opportunity for adding value really starts to diminish. The larger they get they are forced to chase more and more marginal barrels. A relatively safe way to stay invested in the oil/gas space; however the opportunities for true valuation creation are much greater in some of the smaller companies.

Caller worried about holding for 5 years and finding the currency swing has cancelled out his gains in this one. Brian feels the Canadian dollar will max out at $0.85.

The 5% dividend is sustainable. The technical analysis is not supportive of plowing into energy at this point. He would prefer an E & P company. You have probably seen the lows in energy if oil does not go lower.

(A Top Pick Aug 15/14. Down 36.81%.) Still likes this, along with Exxon (XOM-N) and he would recommend both here. This is trading right on his model price. This has never traded at this cheap a valuation since 1995.

Bought this because of its diverse asset base. Their problem and why she bought into the stock, is their 2 big projects they are working on. Both are still in development and no production coming out of them. The company had a very strong history of generating good returns and have executed a lot of these large projects, so she bought into that fear expecting she would be fine. With the price of oil coming down, that has been problematic, because so much of their capital is tied up and committed to finishing the projects. This is going to be driven by the oil price.

Doesn't show the pattern he looks for. Indicators are low. Looks like it is oversold. Could look at the XLE-US which is the basket of the energy sector US ETF. Could add to this name or wait and see if the whole space is actually moving up and at the same time watch Chevron to see if it is going to catch up.

This company has downstream as well, so it is protected somewhat. However, these companies are just facing such strong headwinds. If you are not prepared to sit on this for quite a long period of time, there are other places to go.

(Top Pick Mar 26/14, Down 7.57%) Still a favourite in the oil space. His model price is $87.63 or -17% and is has a 4.62% yield. He owns it on a net asset value basis.

(Top Pick Jan 14/14, Down 4.64%) As it comes down he will buy more. Has a 7% upside in his model. The majors have the pick of the lot in terms of assets.

(A Top Pick Jan 2/14. Down 9.55%.) The oils that came through, relatively speaking, were the senior integrateds. They got hurt, but they didn’t get pounded. The value is still strong.