Denison Mines Corp (DML.TO)

There is a fair amount of seasonality to metals. Lower priced stocks are not traded by the bigger players, and therefore you have less crowd behaviour involved. Penny stocks can be whippy, because they are traded by less traders with less money. The chart shows a long downtrend that was broken, and the stock has found some support at around $.50, and is bouncing off of that right now. There is a little bit of technical resistance at around $.70. If he were to trade this, he would be waiting for a break out through $.70, and would wait for a bare, bare minimum of one week before he bought it, to make sure it is not a head fake.

This company will survive. He was very early in the uranium trade last year, and has now backed out of it. With slow worldwide demand for finished products, and hence slow demand for electricity, the Japanese restarts are going to be delayed for a couple of years, and hence the restart of the uranium space is going to be delayed. He will return to uranium maybe late next year.

Unfortunately uranium is just anaemic right now. There is no catalyst to move forward until there is some sort of clarity in terms of future nuclear energy growth. This isn’t a bad company, and he would put it in the top 5 of Canadian names. The stock is not doing very well. Also, you are going into tax loss season. Unless the price moves in uranium, it is just not going to do anything. Probably dead money. If you really, really like the space, Cameco (CCO-T) is the way to go.

The key to this is what is happening with uranium prices themselves. Uranium prices are in a distinct downward trend. On a positive side, it does seem to be finally, after a long period of time, trying to form a base pattern.

Overall, commodities are in a secular decline. Thinks uranium has a little better fundamental than some of the other commodities, so you could see some modest upside. This is driven by nuclear power plant growth, and outside of China, there is not a tremendous amount of nuclear power growth. This is an okay holding. They have a good swatch of properties in the Athabascan region, so it might be a takeover candidate.

Uranium producer, and the elephant in the room is what is going to happen in Japan. Many analysts would have expected their reactors would have been turned on by now. With uranium under $20 a pound, these companies are not really making any money. He would stay away from the space.

Denison and Cameco (CCO-T) are the 2 Canadian operators of uranium mines in the Athabascan Basin. This basin has the highest uranium grade deposits in the world. There have been some significant new discoveries, and activity is starting to blossom again in the basin. The future of uranium supply lies in the Athabascan Basin. The company is looking for high grade discoveries, which are worth billions of dollars.

He is more patient than most investors, and he is content to wait 2 or 3 years to be right with uranium. He likes this one, but it will not move in the next 90 days. It is much more likely to be the acquirer rather than the acquiree. The fees of U-T are a great source of revenue. You need a higher uranium price to get DML-T moving.

Not sure of the seasonality, but technicals are very interesting. Has been forming a nice little base pattern, unlike Cameco (CCO-T). Has been outperforming the TSX in the last few weeks, has positive momentum and has been forming a trading range. If it breaks above the resistance level, then you are going to see the stock take a move, probably back up close to the $1 level. Watch for encouragement from the company, particularly on the exploration front.

The trend is on the downside. It is not a good situation on a technical basis. On a seasonal basis it is dependent on what happens to Uranium. If Uranium prices recovery it might be work looking at.

They are merging with Fission (FCU-T) and it will provide them with future growth opportunities. This is one of the commodities that he would be somewhat bullish on. There is a push to lowering green house gases. He prefers Uranium Participation Units (U-T). It’s a little early to take a large position.

He owns Cameco (CCO-T) instead. Uranium can and should get tight, but it is a very politicized market. The uranium story hasn’t flowed through yet, but it could. There is an awful lot of effort to turn this into a company that he would like to see developed. A neat little company that could do well, but uranium has to do well first.

This whole space has not been a good place to be. The precious metals and the industrial metals spaces are terrible right now. Technicals are showing the indicators are really, really oversold.

Acquired Fission Uranium, and often when companies combine, that can cause some problems and some write-downs. Fission garnered an awful lot of press and ended very well because of it. Often when you have 2 weak companies merging, that often does not bode well. This could be a good pick, perhaps towards the end of the year after tax loss selling. He would stay away at this time.

One of the best positioned companies in the Athabascan Basin, and a takeover target by somebody. He likes it. Long-term, uranium looks like a good space to be in. They have the resources and the deposits, and it is a smart group.