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Opinions Mary Farrell
FedExFDXTOP PICKOct 29, 2004
Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 11, 2026. Market Open.
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Was down an ugly 12% today after an earnings miss. Over-reaction? Earnings slightly missed. Adjusted operating income grew, though still came in a tad light. Saw 25.5% earnings growth YOY, but EPS still missed the street's estimate. The company cut their full-year forecast. The problems are rooted into their Express business, their largest, which saw revenues -6% YOY and operating income -49% YOY. FedEx ground is solid, and Freight continues to recover. In the US, some businesses moved from Express to the cheaper Ground service. Make sense. Also, there's less international air freight as competing rates have flatlined. Because oil prices are down this year, their fuel surcharges (and revenues) are lower. Also, they saw less business from the US Post Office than expected. Also, Wall St. priced in savings of the long-term Drive transformation plan too early. Yes, these problems are real, but are not enough to give up on FedEx. He believes the CEO who says that many of its problems are transitory (i.e. the post office deal ends next year and the shift to Ground sounds like a holiday season thing). Earnings took a hit, yes, but didn't evaporate as they would have a year ago. In fact, numbers are resilient and show how successful they've been in cutting costs. Costs are much better than in ages. Amazon: their parcel volume now surpasses FedEx and UPS, something that neither the CEO nor analysts mentioned. If Amazon keeps taking market share, then this will be a major problem for FedEx. Again, he feels FedEx's problems are temporary, and it trades under 14x PE. It could be in the penalty box for a quarter, but FedEx will get cheaper and shares fall lower.
It reports Tuesday. The new CEO has re-energized the company by cutting costs dramatically while revenues rise. He expects them to release a terrific quarter, but if there's any pullback, then buy. They're in a long-term refresh after showing choppy returns for a while. He likes this long-term and the e-commerce tailwind.
FDX is expected to grow the top-line in the mid-single digit range but EPS is expected to grow closer to the range of 20% over the next two years. The company would be sensitive to any economic slowdown that occurs but so far the US economy has remained resilient. At 12X forward earnings we think FDX looks fine. The last quarter was a solid beat on earnings (beating estimates by 22%) and the stock has done well this year. It produces strong cash flow ($9.6B annually) with decent conversion to free cash flow ($3.5B).
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Revenues missed, but EPS beat. Mixed. Shares are up 31% YTD and trades at 31x PE. Guidance wasn't great. An activist is focusing on continuing cost cuts and increasing productivity. He's still in this and evaluating this into the next quarter. It's been a winner for him but is considering taking some shares off the table.
They report Tuesday. He expects a solid report. Shares are up 36% YTD. The activist investor there is really focusing on efficiency and shareholder value. They raised the dividend 53% in the last quarter and had a strong investor day. He likes management and is confident they will successfully integrate their various businesses.
A bellwether for the wider economy and what a comeback story. Shares are up 62% from last September's lows. Today, they announced it will consolidate its three major operations (Ground, Express and Services) into one which will save $4 billion. Also, FedEx raised its dividend by 10%. Huge news.
Owns UPS instead, and it's good that FedEx that both are focusing on profitability. She prefers UPS for having more density in its ground business and more tied to e-commerce which will remain strong. UPS is exposed to Amazon, which some feel is a risk, but she doesn't anymore, because Amazon can't invest more in infrastructure anymore.
