Ed BrownHome DepotHDTOP PICKJul 30, 2004

Was upgraded today. The hope is for normalization this year after the Covid boom and the post-Covid bust for HD. It will start performing again. Likes it. Falling interest rates will certainly help. True, it is a mature company, but new housing development is a long-term trend given the housing shortage.

Jumped 3.06% today after an analyst upgrade, citing falling interest rates and that falling home sales are in the rearview mirror, so the inflection is in sight.

Has been hated, but just reported top and bottom line beats and didn't touch their full-year forecast. Sure, expectation were knocked down first.

The affordability of housing is a concern as well as the possibility of a reduction in the renovation market due to higher rates. This could have a dampening effect over the next couple of quarters but you could buy it for the long term. It is very well run and has been a great company over the years.

If inflation is really declining, then people will buy houses again and shop at HD. It's time to consider the home stocks again. Today's rally (based on tame CPI today) shows pent-up demand for these beaten-up stocks. 

People are clueless about this stock--are high mortgage rates are causing homeowners to remodel instead of move? Is shoplifting a worry to company numbers? Housing remains the worst part of inflation.

Long-term, great company. With home supply at minimal levels across NA, and people stuck in lower mortgages, home improvements trump moving house. Inflation Reduction Act begets infrastructure spending, which trickles down to HD. Reasonable 18x. Consistent, well managed, share count not increasing. 

He'd argue tailwinds, not headwinds, despite higher interest rates and slowing economy. Set to be a great defensive retailer if we have a recession. Good proxy if you want retail exposure, because they'll be hurt, but not as much as others. Yield is 2.9%, but there's withholding tax unless it's in an RRSP.

The homebuilder sector has been hurt by higher interest rates as the consumer shows some cracks in spending. Employment is holding up for now, so maybe the consumer will hold up after all. Watch the consumer. Prefers Lowes for its better multiple.

He owns retail, but not names like LULU or Nike, but rather defensive ones like this. He sees more weakness in pooer consumers (i.e. Dollar General which plunged recently). HD benefits from the general consumer trade-down of staying in your home longer and fixing it up. The days of consumers being flush with cash are over. Done. Inflation seems to be weakening the low end of the job market.

He trimmed, because it's not going anywhere near term. He is building cash for the current market pullback. He will add to Nvidia, Microsoft and Apple on more weakness.

They report next week. HD suffered when people stopped spending on homes post-Covid, but that's now past. People are spending on experiences, but also on their homes (and goods) again. Since mid-May, HD has risen 17%, outpacing the market. She expects a good report and for positive trends to continue. It helps that commodity prices have come down.

It usually trades at a big premium to the market of 18%, but now only 2%. Shares haven't moved since March. But now could be a great opportunity for a catch-up trade now that we're seeing strength in housing.

The home reno space has been in a slump, because people have been travelling and enjoying experiences. During Covid, they stayed home and renovated, which she feels will return, because there isn't enough housing to buy. So, people will stay in their homes and fix them up. Lower material costs will help. HD and Sherwin Williams are buys now.

He's waiting for the price to pull back. The PE is not historically high, but shares haven't done much lately.