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JP Morgan Chase & CoJPMBUYJan 08, 2020Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 18, 2026. Market Open.
It is a leader in the sector - best managed, best balance sheet and is outspending their competitors in technology by a wide margin. It made some good acquisitions with regional banks being in difficulty. The U.S. financial ETF - XLF made new highs in the bear market 1 1/2 years ago.
Likes the money centre banks. Will do well with a normalized yield curve, as it enhances net interest margins. Fed signalling interest rates coming down should depress the short end of the curve, with the long end maintaining itself somewhat.
The group is trading at about a 30% discount to normalized valuations of around 13.5x earnings. That carries through to book value, trading at discounts to historical norms. He owns JPM, BAC, and MS, and that's where he'd put money.
It is the largest bank in the U.S. and has a strong balance sheet. It bought First Republic in May and this has been very accretive, targeting high net worth clients. It benefits from volatility in the smaller regional banks. She likes the CEO and management has a conservative approach.
Buy 23 Hold 9 Sell 0
He had sold the banks (MS, BAC, but is long JPM) to buy QQQs, and he stands by that rotation. If any banks decline, it would be the regional ones, which he's avoided since the spring crisis. His outlook on the banks is limited upside, given regulations restricting hoarding capital on the balance sheet, which will impede loan growth. Plus, the economy will start of contract. MS and BAC are good companies, but he'd rather buy the debt of these stocks, because their balance sheets will be fortified.
Banks reported their Q2 today. JPM's loan-loss provisions are $100 billion lower a year ago if you strip out First Republic. That says something about the trajectory of the economy. Add to that the CEO's bullish comments about the economy and his bank's forecast. Without First Rep., they beat profits at 40%, a 67% profit rise with FR. Massive.
JPM vs. BAC Both are first-class banks. He owns JPM which trades at a much higher valuation than BAC. Both are tops in their business lines. For the next 5-10 years they'll be in a sweet spot of reducing costs with few regulatory issues to deal with. They'll use tech to drive their business, an advantage for larger banks who can afford that. They will do some small acquisitions. They should be trading at higher multiples. Cash flow allows them to raise dividends and buyback shares. Their payout ratios are much lower than those of Canadian banks.