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LuLulemon Athletica (LLL.TO)

DON'T BUY

Kind of scares him to some extent because it is trading at a forward PE of 37X. Have just issued a Q4 revenue guidance at the high end of the prior range. With the high PE, any hiccups they may have, this stock could come down quite quickly. However, the technicals look very, very strong.

DON'T BUY

This one has confounded him. It has been a growth stock, a wonderful stock. Tried to Short at $18 a couple of years ago but it didn’t work out. Had a fantastic roll out of their stores. Hit a core niche nerve with the athletic market in yoga wear but there are a lot of people upset with the stores and they have a serious issue. Would not want to be in this stock before the quarter. He would be looking to Short, not owning.

COMMENT

Company has done very well at executing their growth strategy in the US. As a value investor, it is difficult for her to buy a stock that is trading at 40X forward earnings, even though their growth outlook is quite strong. Too expensive for her. Canadian market is pretty well tapped out and so now it is the US and are starting to look at international expansion, but that is in the very early stages. In a couple of years they will likely start opening some stores.

HOLD

It’s a little expensive. A great company. Had amazing growth but the problem is that if there is any problem in sales during Christmas it will take quite a tumble. It is a high priced stock and dependent on the growth rate.

PAST TOP PICK

(Top Pick Sep 13/11, Up 30.80%) There are a lot of naysayers. LLL continues to execute and grow their stores. They go into a community and open a show house and host yoga classes and figure out what demand and take-up is.

COMMENT

Over the course of the summer, retailers have had a great run. The momentum seems to be coming out of them in the last week or 2. This one has great same-store sales, great international growth opportunities, great per square foot sales. You have to decide how much economic sensitivity that you want going through this fall.

DON'T BUY

Very good operator. Trading at 37X forward earnings. Built for perfection. Has always looked too expensive for him so he sees higher risks than rewards.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Sept 13/11. Up 2.32%.) He was stopped out around $62. He’ll be entering again sometime when a good quarter comes in.

DON'T BUY

Has always been too expensive for her as she tends to be a value buyer. Very sensitive to earnings so even the slightest slip and the stock will come down. Products are premium priced and there is softness on high-end products.

DON'T BUY
(Market Call Minute.) PE ratio is atrociously high.
DON'T BUY
Great company, but far too expensive for his liking. They have enjoyed great earnings growth but that earnings has come with a multiple of 30 times.
COMMENT
Has been a great story. Insiders sold a lot of their shares near the highs. Their revenues keep on growing. No debt. If he owned it, he would be thinking about selling it.
HOLD
A Canadian success story. Has obviously capitalized on the yoga wear trend. Trading at quite high multiples so any little slip up could cause the stock to drop 5%-10% which is what happened recently. Doing the right things by going into products that are different than yoga wear.
DON'T BUY
From a sector standpoint, retail has outperformed but recently under a little bit of pressure. Some jewelry retailers have given pessimistic guidance. LLL’s forward-looking guidance is a little less positive. This stock has some work to do, be cautious. Thinks there will be downside to $60, the 200 day moving average. There will be some profit taking.
DON'T BUY
Struggles with the valuation of 51X trailing PE and 39X forward PE. Growth rate is certainly there and the expected growth rate is well into the 20%-25% range.
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