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Director & Portfolio Manager at Private Wealth Management, ScotiaMcleod
Member since: Jun '09 · 2966 Opinions
Fabulous 9-week rally to end 2023, but we're stumbling out of the gate so far in 2024. We were overbought quite a bit, so some consolidation should not be surprising. Strong US labour data, some uptick in bond yields, and today's inflation print was hotter than expected. Markets are taking that in stride.
Renewed concerns about the trajectory of interest rates and inflation as well. Data since the 1950s shows that Q1 of an election year is typically flattish. So he expects some bumpiness in Q1. Fun fact: since 1950, in 11 observations of a first-term election-year president we've never had a negative return for the calendar year for the S&P 500. In fact, the average return is 12.2%.
Yes. The MSCI World Index is at 73%. Last 3 months has seen the dominance of tech stocks fading a bit, and we're getting broader participation from other sectors such as healthcare, industrials, and financials. That's great for investors who are diversified, because last year it was pretty much all about tech and communications.
Bonds and fixed income had a tough time the last couple of years. Now that we've seen interest rates fall (despite a bit of an uptick last 2 weeks), he does like bonds. CAD version of AGG, investment-grade government and corporate bonds. Yield of about 4+%. Up about 6.5% last 3 months.
AGG is significantly cheaper at 3bps, compared to XAGH at 20 bps. So consider switching, if you don't mind the USD exposure.
Bonds and fixed income had a tough time the last couple of years. Now that we see interest rates falling (despite a bit of an uptick last 2 weeks), he does like bonds. Investment-grade government and corporate bonds.
At 3 bps, AGG is significantly cheaper than the Canadian version, XAGH, at 20 bps. So consider buying this one, if you don't mind the USD exposure.
Up about 11% last 3 months. Basket of 22 REITs. Underperformed TSX since March 2020, but has started to move with most other dividend stocks. He's starting to warm up to areas of higher distributions like REITs. Yield's about 5%.
Prefers US-focused ones, because of the relative strength of the US economy. Likes logistics, storage, seniors homes, US retail.
Powerhouse, lots of cashflow, great balance sheet. Concern is it's highly centred on iPhone and how well it does. Majority of revenue comes from iPhone, though other revenue streams are increasing as a percentage. Pause in performance against the S&P. Better names with more growth and better valuation. PEG is 2x, not really cheap. He's neutral.
Yield gets up to about 10% with the covered call overlay. Likes US banks, cheap relative to 5-10 year history. If economy continues to recover, banks should be there. Last 3 months, this has returned 17.5%.
Are you looking for income, or do you just want exposure to US banks? Makes sense if you need the income. He'd argue that you'll get a better total return owning the underlying shares, or an ETF of US banks, instead of using the covered call strategy.