The Weekly Buzzing Stocks by Billy KawasakiMosaic Company (The)MOSTOP PICKMar 25, 2022
Hit a 52-week high on Wednesday. Strong demand, low inventories, supply issues and the Russian sanctions have fueled a rapid price increase for fertilizers globally. Stockchase Research expert Michael O'Reilly recently reiterated it as a TOP PICK. Social media mentions increased 88% in the last 24h.
Wheat prices are coming down, then fertilizer prices become too much for farmers, and then demand comes down. Commodities in general are coming off highs. Longer term, likes the name, as product increases productivity. Volatile, pay attention if you trade.
High quality business that will benefit from economic recovery.
Price of commodity stabilizing.
As China opens up, price of fertilizer will rise.
Trading at low valuation that is good for long term investors.
Small dividend yield that has room to grow.
Excellent management team.
Lots of free cash flow.
(A Top Pick Jun 07/22, Down 7.5%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly Our PAST TOP PICK with MOS triggered its stop at $52. To remain disciplined, we recommend covering the position at this time. This will result in a net investment gain of 19%, when combined with previous buy recommendations.
Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly With agriculture taking centre stage during the Ukraine crisis, second only to energy, we again reiterate MOS as a TOP PICK. The company is the largest producer of potash and phosphate fertilizer in the US -- desperately needed to boost farmer yields during the global food shortage. It trades at 8x earnings compared to peers at 11x and and supports a healthy 23% ROE. It continues to build cash reserves will retiring debt. We recommend trailing down the stop slightly (from $55) to $52, looking to achieve $75 -- upside potential over 30%. Yield 1.01% (Analysts’ price target is $75.15)
Likes the ag space. Higher beta name. One of the largest producers of phosphate and potash. Ukraine conflict is creating supply shocks that are helping names like this. Management expects markets to remain tight beyond 2022. Longer term, reduction in arable land pushes demand for product. Yield is 0.66%. (Analysts’ price target is $75.22)
They report Monday. The fertilizer business is booming. If Mosaic sees prices topping out, then the Fed's Jay Powell may not need to raise rates aggressively. But he doesn't see fertilizer topping out.
Allan Tong’s Discover PicksMosaic shares have doubled so far this year, but there is still a little more room to run. Even if Russia ceases its war, sanctions are likely to stay in place. Certainly, it will take a while for foreign companies to trust and resume business with Russia across all sectors. In the first three months of 2022, Mosaic shares ran twice as far as its Canadian counterpart, Nutrien , 71% to 37%. Mosaic pays a 0.6% dividend. Read 3 Booming Resource Stocks: Fertilizer and Natural Gas for our full analysis.
(A Top Pick Jan 06/22, Up 84.2%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly Our PAST TOP PICK with MOS is progressing well. We now recommend trailing up the stop (from $40) to $55.
(A Top Pick Jan 06/22, Up 57.9%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O’Reilly Our PAST TOP PICK with MOS is progressing well. To remain disciplined, we now recommend trailing up the stop (from $35) to $40.
The agriculture and fertilizer space is a good place to be. Mosaic is a great company but he prefers Nutrien since it has a retail section as well as the fertilizer part.
(A Top Pick Jan 06/22, Up 16%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly Our PAST TOP PICK with MOS has achieved its $46 target. To remain disciplined, we recommend covering half the position at this time. We continue to recommend keeping the stop at $35.
Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly We once again reiterate MOS, the world's largest producer of nutrients used in fertilizer for markets in North America and internationally, as a TOP PICK. It trades at 8x earnings, compared to peers at 16x. The company reported sales growth of over 70% recently. Inflationary pressures for commodities continues creating tailwinds. With good growth prospects its PEG ratio is just over 1.0 and it is trading at 1.5x book. It pays a small dividend that is backed by a payout ratio of under 10% of cash flow. We recommend trailing up the stop (from $30) to $35, looking to achieve $46 -- potential upside over 15%. Yield 0.74% (Analysts’ price target is $45.93)
Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly As the world's largest producer of nutrients used in fertilizer for markets in North America and internationally, we reiterate MOS as a TOP PICK. It trades at 8x earnings, compared to peers at 16x. With good growth prospects its PEG ratio is just over 1.0 and it is trading at 1.3x book. It pays a small dividend that is backed by a payout ratio of under 10% of cash flow. We continue to recommend a stop loss at $30, looking to achieve $46 -- potential upside over 26%. Yield 0.84% (Analysts’ price target is $45.93)