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Microsoft CorpMSFTCOMMENTNov 01, 2013Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 22, 2026. Market Open.
Not a value company, but has become a "utility" style company due large scale adoption of products. Very strong product suite with high margins. Excellent management team. 30x earnings per / share hard to justify, but strong dividend and excellent balance sheet. Would recommend holding, or buying on weakness.
Hit record high earlier today. Makes sense especially with exposure to AI space. Cloud business is growing, subscriptions keep the money flowing. Not cheap now at 33.5x, growing at 15x, 2x PEG. Forward price to sales a bit high at 11x.
In all the right spaces and doing the right things. Hold. Be careful adding, as tech did so well last year.
MSFT is expected to grow in the mid-teens on the top-line over the next few years and trades at a forward P/E of 30.9. It trades at a premium, as it shoulld. With that said, we think the bar is high for above-average share price growth at MSFT. They are very large, being scrutinized on acquisitons, not cheap and have had a strong run in the last year. We think it is a name an investor can still do fine with over the long-term, but we might not expect 'fireworks' here either.
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IBM lacks the spread of clientele like MSFT. Also, IBM has been getting rid of their hardware business, focusing more on software with AI. In terms of quality, MSFT is better (customer loyalty, Office Suite) while IBM is inferior, offering little growth. IBM isn't a big player moving forward. Among megatech, MSFT is the top.
A big believer that the large-cap technology companies essentially reinvent themselves to become more shareholder friendly. They generate a lot of money, so they are more than willing to buy back stock and to increase the dividend. If you own for the dividend, this is very safe. This needs to break out of that range where it is no longer just a stable bricks and mortar technology company but go back to the days when it was a higher growth. The Windows operating system is the biggest franchise and they put their cash from that into things like Xbox, Bing and their service and tools business. If they can keep those parts moving and growing, the valuation will continue to move higher putting the stock somewhere up in the $40 range.